Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States

Long-term observations inform relationships among changes in vegetation, climate, and land use. For the eastern United States, I compared the timing of tree change, comprised of density and diversity increases, with the timing of climate change, as measured by change point detection of the Palmer Mo...

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Autor principal:	Brice B. Hanberry
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	alternative state drought fire moisture PDSI PMDI Agriculture S
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7a0ce263827e42749e593277bee24085
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7a0ce263827e42749e593277bee240852021-11-25T18:09:00ZTiming of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States10.3390/land101111212073-445Xhttps://doaj.org/article/7a0ce263827e42749e593277bee240852021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1121https://doaj.org/toc/2073-445XLong-term observations inform relationships among changes in vegetation, climate, and land use. For the eastern United States, I compared the timing of tree change, comprised of density and diversity increases, with the timing of climate change, as measured by change point detection of the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) that accounts for water balance, in two prairie ecological provinces, four grassland landscapes, and four forest landscapes. Historical evidence supplied documentation of tree density increases between approximately 1860 and 1890 in the two prairie provinces of grasslands bordering eastern forests. Additionally, because timing of tree increases paralleled when land area reached ≥25% agricultural use, I categorized grassland and forest landscapes that increased to ≥25% agricultural area during 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1920. One change point detection method identified no significant PMDI change points during the 1800s. The other method found the southern prairie province, bordering eastern forests, had change points of 1855 and 1865 during an interval of relative dryness. Only two of four grassland landscapes, and one of four forest landscapes had change points, which occurred during relative dryness or were continuous with historical variation. Inconsistent changes in moisture availability did not provide correlations with comprehensive tree increases, but land use change corresponded with tree changes based on timing, magnitude and direction of change, and mechanism. The agricultural threshold may provide the critical missing component that allows progression in analysis of land use change effects on vegetation.Brice B. HanberryMDPI AGarticlealternative statedroughtfiremoisturePDSIPMDIAgricultureSENLand, Vol 10, Iss 1121, p 1121 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	alternative state drought fire moisture PDSI PMDI Agriculture S
spellingShingle	alternative state drought fire moisture PDSI PMDI Agriculture S Brice B. Hanberry Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States
description	Long-term observations inform relationships among changes in vegetation, climate, and land use. For the eastern United States, I compared the timing of tree change, comprised of density and diversity increases, with the timing of climate change, as measured by change point detection of the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) that accounts for water balance, in two prairie ecological provinces, four grassland landscapes, and four forest landscapes. Historical evidence supplied documentation of tree density increases between approximately 1860 and 1890 in the two prairie provinces of grasslands bordering eastern forests. Additionally, because timing of tree increases paralleled when land area reached ≥25% agricultural use, I categorized grassland and forest landscapes that increased to ≥25% agricultural area during 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1920. One change point detection method identified no significant PMDI change points during the 1800s. The other method found the southern prairie province, bordering eastern forests, had change points of 1855 and 1865 during an interval of relative dryness. Only two of four grassland landscapes, and one of four forest landscapes had change points, which occurred during relative dryness or were continuous with historical variation. Inconsistent changes in moisture availability did not provide correlations with comprehensive tree increases, but land use change corresponded with tree changes based on timing, magnitude and direction of change, and mechanism. The agricultural threshold may provide the critical missing component that allows progression in analysis of land use change effects on vegetation.
format	article
author	Brice B. Hanberry
author_facet	Brice B. Hanberry
author_sort	Brice B. Hanberry
title	Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States
title_short	Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States
title_full	Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States
title_fullStr	Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States
title_full_unstemmed	Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States
title_sort	timing of tree density increases, influence of climate change, and a land use proxy for tree density increases in the eastern united states
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7a0ce263827e42749e593277bee24085
work_keys_str_mv	AT bricebhanberry timingoftreedensityincreasesinfluenceofclimatechangeandalanduseproxyfortreedensityincreasesintheeasternunitedstates
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Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States

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