Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks

Abstract The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the restrictions and the spreading of epidemics may dec...

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Autores principales:	Innokentiy A. Kastalskiy, Evgeniya V. Pankratova, Evgeny M. Mirkes, Victor B. Kazantsev, Alexander N. Gorban
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7a2816dc1dcd4a1fa4b93e287f83ddac
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7a2816dc1dcd4a1fa4b93e287f83ddac2021-11-21T12:18:25ZSocial stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks10.1038/s41598-021-01317-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7a2816dc1dcd4a1fa4b93e287f83ddac2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01317-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the restrictions and the spreading of epidemics may decline. Over time, some people get tired/frustrated by the restrictions and stop following them (exhaustion), especially if the number of new cases drops down. After resting for a while, they can follow the restrictions again. But during this pause the second wave can come and become even stronger then the first one. Studies based on SIR models do not predict the observed quick exit from the first wave of epidemics. Social dynamics should be considered. The appearance of the second wave also depends on social factors. Many generalizations of the SIR model have been developed that take into account the weakening of immunity over time, the evolution of the virus, vaccination and other medical and biological details. However, these more sophisticated models do not explain the apparent differences in outbreak profiles between countries with different intrinsic socio-cultural features. In our work, a system of models of the COVID-19 pandemic is proposed, combining the dynamics of social stress with classical epidemic models. Social stress is described by the tools of sociophysics. The combination of a dynamic SIR-type model with the classical triad of stages of the general adaptation syndrome, alarm-resistance-exhaustion, makes it possible to describe with high accuracy the available statistical data for 13 countries. The sets of kinetic constants corresponding to optimal fit of model to data were found. These constants characterize the ability of society to mobilize efforts against epidemics and maintain this concentration over time and can further help in the development of management strategies specific to a particular society.Innokentiy A. KastalskiyEvgeniya V. PankratovaEvgeny M. MirkesVictor B. KazantsevAlexander N. GorbanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Innokentiy A. Kastalskiy Evgeniya V. Pankratova Evgeny M. Mirkes Victor B. Kazantsev Alexander N. Gorban Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks
description	Abstract The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the restrictions and the spreading of epidemics may decline. Over time, some people get tired/frustrated by the restrictions and stop following them (exhaustion), especially if the number of new cases drops down. After resting for a while, they can follow the restrictions again. But during this pause the second wave can come and become even stronger then the first one. Studies based on SIR models do not predict the observed quick exit from the first wave of epidemics. Social dynamics should be considered. The appearance of the second wave also depends on social factors. Many generalizations of the SIR model have been developed that take into account the weakening of immunity over time, the evolution of the virus, vaccination and other medical and biological details. However, these more sophisticated models do not explain the apparent differences in outbreak profiles between countries with different intrinsic socio-cultural features. In our work, a system of models of the COVID-19 pandemic is proposed, combining the dynamics of social stress with classical epidemic models. Social stress is described by the tools of sociophysics. The combination of a dynamic SIR-type model with the classical triad of stages of the general adaptation syndrome, alarm-resistance-exhaustion, makes it possible to describe with high accuracy the available statistical data for 13 countries. The sets of kinetic constants corresponding to optimal fit of model to data were found. These constants characterize the ability of society to mobilize efforts against epidemics and maintain this concentration over time and can further help in the development of management strategies specific to a particular society.
format	article
author	Innokentiy A. Kastalskiy Evgeniya V. Pankratova Evgeny M. Mirkes Victor B. Kazantsev Alexander N. Gorban
author_facet	Innokentiy A. Kastalskiy Evgeniya V. Pankratova Evgeny M. Mirkes Victor B. Kazantsev Alexander N. Gorban
author_sort	Innokentiy A. Kastalskiy
title	Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks
title_short	Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks
title_full	Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks
title_fullStr	Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed	Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks
title_sort	social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of covid-19 outbreaks
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7a2816dc1dcd4a1fa4b93e287f83ddac
work_keys_str_mv	AT innokentiyakastalskiy socialstressdrivesthemultiwavedynamicsofcovid19outbreaks AT evgeniyavpankratova socialstressdrivesthemultiwavedynamicsofcovid19outbreaks AT evgenymmirkes socialstressdrivesthemultiwavedynamicsofcovid19outbreaks AT victorbkazantsev socialstressdrivesthemultiwavedynamicsofcovid19outbreaks AT alexanderngorban socialstressdrivesthemultiwavedynamicsofcovid19outbreaks
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Social stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks

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