Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate

Abstract To assess whether continental extension and seismic hazard are spatially-localized on single faults or spread over wide regions containing multiple active faults, we investigated temporal and spatial slip-rate variability over many millennia using in-situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating for...

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Autores principales:	Francesco Iezzi, Gerald Roberts, Joanna Faure Walker, Ioannis Papanikolaou, Athanassios Ganas, Georgios Deligiannakis, Joakim Beck, Soeren Wolfers, Delia Gheorghiu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7a4882b8ef27491cbe87ce6ffdf531e4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7a4882b8ef27491cbe87ce6ffdf531e42021-12-05T12:15:28ZTemporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate10.1038/s41598-021-02131-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7a4882b8ef27491cbe87ce6ffdf531e42021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract To assess whether continental extension and seismic hazard are spatially-localized on single faults or spread over wide regions containing multiple active faults, we investigated temporal and spatial slip-rate variability over many millennia using in-situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating for active normal faults near Athens, Greece. We study a ~ NNE-SSW transect, sub-parallel to the extensional strain direction, constrained by two permanent GPS stations located at each end of the transect and arranged normal to the fault strikes. We sampled 3 of the 7 seven normal faults that exist between the GPS sites for 36Cl analyses. Results from Bayesian inference of the measured 36Cl data implies that some faults slip relatively-rapidly for a few millennia accompanied by relative quiescence on faults across strike, defining out-of-phase fault activity. Assuming that the decadal strain-rate derived from GPS applies over many millennia, slip on a single fault can accommodate ~ 30–75% of the regional strain-rate for a few millennia. Our results imply that only a fraction of the total number of Holocene active faults slip over timescales of a few millennia, so continental deformation and seismic hazard are localized on specific faults and over a length-scale shorter than the spacing of the present GPS network over this time-scale. Thus, (1) the identification of clustered fault activity is vital for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, and (2) a combination of dense geodetic observations and palaeoseismology is needed to identify the precise location and width of actively deforming zones over specific time periods.Francesco IezziGerald RobertsJoanna Faure WalkerIoannis PapanikolaouAthanassios GanasGeorgios DeligiannakisJoakim BeckSoeren WolfersDelia GheorghiuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Francesco Iezzi Gerald Roberts Joanna Faure Walker Ioannis Papanikolaou Athanassios Ganas Georgios Deligiannakis Joakim Beck Soeren Wolfers Delia Gheorghiu Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
description	Abstract To assess whether continental extension and seismic hazard are spatially-localized on single faults or spread over wide regions containing multiple active faults, we investigated temporal and spatial slip-rate variability over many millennia using in-situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating for active normal faults near Athens, Greece. We study a ~ NNE-SSW transect, sub-parallel to the extensional strain direction, constrained by two permanent GPS stations located at each end of the transect and arranged normal to the fault strikes. We sampled 3 of the 7 seven normal faults that exist between the GPS sites for 36Cl analyses. Results from Bayesian inference of the measured 36Cl data implies that some faults slip relatively-rapidly for a few millennia accompanied by relative quiescence on faults across strike, defining out-of-phase fault activity. Assuming that the decadal strain-rate derived from GPS applies over many millennia, slip on a single fault can accommodate ~ 30–75% of the regional strain-rate for a few millennia. Our results imply that only a fraction of the total number of Holocene active faults slip over timescales of a few millennia, so continental deformation and seismic hazard are localized on specific faults and over a length-scale shorter than the spacing of the present GPS network over this time-scale. Thus, (1) the identification of clustered fault activity is vital for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, and (2) a combination of dense geodetic observations and palaeoseismology is needed to identify the precise location and width of actively deforming zones over specific time periods.
format	article
author	Francesco Iezzi Gerald Roberts Joanna Faure Walker Ioannis Papanikolaou Athanassios Ganas Georgios Deligiannakis Joakim Beck Soeren Wolfers Delia Gheorghiu
author_facet	Francesco Iezzi Gerald Roberts Joanna Faure Walker Ioannis Papanikolaou Athanassios Ganas Georgios Deligiannakis Joakim Beck Soeren Wolfers Delia Gheorghiu
author_sort	Francesco Iezzi
title	Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
title_short	Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
title_full	Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
title_fullStr	Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
title_full_unstemmed	Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
title_sort	temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal gps strain-rate
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7a4882b8ef27491cbe87ce6ffdf531e4
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Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate

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