Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill

The Sacramento River Basin (SRB) and the San Joaquin River Basin (JRB) have a history of recurring droughts. Both are important for California, being the crucial source of water supply. The available instrumental records may not depict the long-term hydrologic variability encompassing the duration a...

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Autores principales:	Saria Bukhary, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	pacific decadal oscillation sea surface temperature southern oscillation index streamflow reconstruction tree-ring chronology Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7a64a6cd89f3489da845fd9df61369d9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7a64a6cd89f3489da845fd9df61369d92021-11-05T19:02:08ZIncorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2020.336https://doaj.org/article/7a64a6cd89f3489da845fd9df61369d92021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/1891https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The Sacramento River Basin (SRB) and the San Joaquin River Basin (JRB) have a history of recurring droughts. Both are important for California, being the crucial source of water supply. The available instrumental records may not depict the long-term hydrologic variability encompassing the duration and frequency of the historic low flow events. Thus, streamflow reconstruction becomes important in the current scenario of climatic alteration, escalating population and growing water needs. Studies have shown that Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) influence the precipitation and streamflow volumes of southwestern United States, particularly California. The focus of this study is to enhance the traditional tree-ring chronology (TRC)-based streamflow reconstruction approach by incorporating the predictors of SST, PDO, and SOI together with TRC, in a stepwise linear regression (SLR) model. The methodology was successfully applied to selected gauges located in the SRB and the JRB using five SLR models (SLR 1–5), and reconstructions were developed from 1801 to 1980 with an overlap period of 1933–1980. An improved reconstruction skill was demonstrated by using SST in combination with TRC (SLR-3 and SLR-5) (calibration r2 = 0.6–0.91 and cross-validation r² = 0.44–0.74) compared with using TRC only (SLR-1), or TRC along with SOI and PDO (SLR-2; calibration r2 = 0.51–0.78 and cross-validation r² = 0.41–0.68). HIGHLIGHTS Incorporated climate information to enhance the tree-ring chronology (TRC)-based streamflow reconstruction.; Predictors of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), PDO, and SOI together with TRC were incorporated in a stepwise linear regression model.; Methodology was applied to selected gauges in the Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River Basin, USA.; An improved reconstruction skill was demonstrated by using the SST in combination with TRC.;Saria BukharyAjay KalraSajjad AhmadIWA Publishingarticlepacific decadal oscillationsea surface temperaturesouthern oscillation indexstreamflow reconstructiontree-ring chronologyEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 1891-1909 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	pacific decadal oscillation sea surface temperature southern oscillation index streamflow reconstruction tree-ring chronology Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	pacific decadal oscillation sea surface temperature southern oscillation index streamflow reconstruction tree-ring chronology Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Saria Bukhary Ajay Kalra Sajjad Ahmad Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill
description	The Sacramento River Basin (SRB) and the San Joaquin River Basin (JRB) have a history of recurring droughts. Both are important for California, being the crucial source of water supply. The available instrumental records may not depict the long-term hydrologic variability encompassing the duration and frequency of the historic low flow events. Thus, streamflow reconstruction becomes important in the current scenario of climatic alteration, escalating population and growing water needs. Studies have shown that Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) influence the precipitation and streamflow volumes of southwestern United States, particularly California. The focus of this study is to enhance the traditional tree-ring chronology (TRC)-based streamflow reconstruction approach by incorporating the predictors of SST, PDO, and SOI together with TRC, in a stepwise linear regression (SLR) model. The methodology was successfully applied to selected gauges located in the SRB and the JRB using five SLR models (SLR 1–5), and reconstructions were developed from 1801 to 1980 with an overlap period of 1933–1980. An improved reconstruction skill was demonstrated by using SST in combination with TRC (SLR-3 and SLR-5) (calibration r2 = 0.6–0.91 and cross-validation r² = 0.44–0.74) compared with using TRC only (SLR-1), or TRC along with SOI and PDO (SLR-2; calibration r2 = 0.51–0.78 and cross-validation r² = 0.41–0.68). HIGHLIGHTS Incorporated climate information to enhance the tree-ring chronology (TRC)-based streamflow reconstruction.; Predictors of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), PDO, and SOI together with TRC were incorporated in a stepwise linear regression model.; Methodology was applied to selected gauges in the Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River Basin, USA.; An improved reconstruction skill was demonstrated by using the SST in combination with TRC.;
format	article
author	Saria Bukhary Ajay Kalra Sajjad Ahmad
author_facet	Saria Bukhary Ajay Kalra Sajjad Ahmad
author_sort	Saria Bukhary
title	Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill
title_short	Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill
title_full	Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill
title_fullStr	Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill
title_full_unstemmed	Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill
title_sort	incorporating pacific ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7a64a6cd89f3489da845fd9df61369d9
work_keys_str_mv	AT sariabukhary incorporatingpacificoceanclimateinformationtoenhancethetreeringbasedstreamflowreconstructionskill AT ajaykalra incorporatingpacificoceanclimateinformationtoenhancethetreeringbasedstreamflowreconstructionskill AT sajjadahmad incorporatingpacificoceanclimateinformationtoenhancethetreeringbasedstreamflowreconstructionskill
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Incorporating Pacific Ocean climate information to enhance the tree-ring-based streamflow reconstruction skill

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