Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

Abstract Large quantities of radionuclides released by the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident entered terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The resulting radioactive contamination of large omnivorous wild mammals such as wild boar (Sus scrofa) and Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus) varied greatly...

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Autor principal:	Igor Shuryak
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7aa1a1a70fdd470180c82fdff7148b74
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7aa1a1a70fdd470180c82fdff7148b742021-12-02T17:01:49ZQuantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident10.1038/s41598-021-89449-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7aa1a1a70fdd470180c82fdff7148b742021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89449-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Large quantities of radionuclides released by the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident entered terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The resulting radioactive contamination of large omnivorous wild mammals such as wild boar (Sus scrofa) and Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus) varied greatly depending on location, season, and time after the accident. Quantitative modeling of how such factors influence radionuclide burdens in these species is important for enhancing current knowledge of chronic radionuclide exposure consequences in mammalian populations, and for assessing potential human risks from consumption of contaminated animal meat. Here we modeled the time course of radioactive cesium (134Cs + 137Cs) concentrations in boar and black bears from Fukushima Prefecture over ~ 7 years after the accident, using nonlinear robust and quantile regressions and mixed-effects modeling. To estimate predictive performance, models fitted to the full data set were compared with those fitted only to the first 3.5 years of data, and tested on the last 3.5 years of data. Ecological half-lives for radioactive cesium, and magnitudes and phase shifts for sinusoidal seasonal oscillations in cesium burdens, were estimated by each analysis method for each species. These results can improve the understanding and prediction of radionuclide concentrations in large mammals that inhabit radioactively contaminated areas.Igor ShuryakNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Igor Shuryak Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident
description	Abstract Large quantities of radionuclides released by the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident entered terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The resulting radioactive contamination of large omnivorous wild mammals such as wild boar (Sus scrofa) and Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus) varied greatly depending on location, season, and time after the accident. Quantitative modeling of how such factors influence radionuclide burdens in these species is important for enhancing current knowledge of chronic radionuclide exposure consequences in mammalian populations, and for assessing potential human risks from consumption of contaminated animal meat. Here we modeled the time course of radioactive cesium (134Cs + 137Cs) concentrations in boar and black bears from Fukushima Prefecture over ~ 7 years after the accident, using nonlinear robust and quantile regressions and mixed-effects modeling. To estimate predictive performance, models fitted to the full data set were compared with those fitted only to the first 3.5 years of data, and tested on the last 3.5 years of data. Ecological half-lives for radioactive cesium, and magnitudes and phase shifts for sinusoidal seasonal oscillations in cesium burdens, were estimated by each analysis method for each species. These results can improve the understanding and prediction of radionuclide concentrations in large mammals that inhabit radioactively contaminated areas.
format	article
author	Igor Shuryak
author_facet	Igor Shuryak
author_sort	Igor Shuryak
title	Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident
title_short	Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident
title_full	Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident
title_fullStr	Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident
title_full_unstemmed	Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident
title_sort	quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the fukushima nuclear power plant accident
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7aa1a1a70fdd470180c82fdff7148b74
work_keys_str_mv	AT igorshuryak quantitativemodelingofradioactivecesiumconcentrationsinlargeomnivorousmammalsafterthefukushimanuclearpowerplantaccident
_version_	1718382036061782016

Quantitative modeling of radioactive cesium concentrations in large omnivorous mammals after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

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