Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan

Agriculture in Central Asia faces tremendous challenges due to climate change. International agricultural trade is seen in the literature as a potential adaption to climate change. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of climate change on cereal trade in Central Asia. This study tak...

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Autores principales:	Xiaohua Yu, Hengrong Luo, Hanjie Wang, Jan-Henning Feil
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis Group 2020
Materias:	climate change cereal trade adaptation gravity model kazakhstan Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7acac6ffd6314e768ebddf5612826d92
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7acac6ffd6314e768ebddf5612826d922021-12-02T16:25:31ZClimate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan2332-887810.1080/20964129.2020.1766380https://doaj.org/article/7acac6ffd6314e768ebddf5612826d922020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20964129.2020.1766380https://doaj.org/toc/2332-8878Agriculture in Central Asia faces tremendous challenges due to climate change. International agricultural trade is seen in the literature as a potential adaption to climate change. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of climate change on cereal trade in Central Asia. This study takes Kazakhstan as an example to empirically analyze the effect of climate change on cereal trade by including them as determinants in the gravity model. Our results show that climatic changes in Kazakhstan, measured by precipitation and temperature, could increase the export of wheat and rice and the import of maize, and decrease the import of wheat. Specifically, as a major crop in Kazakhstan, increasing precipitation by 1 millimeter during the major cropping season from May to August, will significantly enhance export of wheat by 0.7% and reduce the import by 1.7%; increasing temperature by 1°C during the same cropping season will significantly increase export of wheat by 21.9% and reduce the import by 49.4%. As an important cereal trade country in the world, the dramatic adjustments of cereal trade patterns resulting from climate change in Kazakhstan might affect global food security.Xiaohua YuHengrong LuoHanjie WangJan-Henning FeilTaylor & Francis Grouparticleclimate changecereal tradeadaptationgravity modelkazakhstanEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcosystem Health and Sustainability, Vol 6, Iss 1 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change cereal trade adaptation gravity model kazakhstan Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	climate change cereal trade adaptation gravity model kazakhstan Ecology QH540-549.5 Xiaohua Yu Hengrong Luo Hanjie Wang Jan-Henning Feil Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan
description	Agriculture in Central Asia faces tremendous challenges due to climate change. International agricultural trade is seen in the literature as a potential adaption to climate change. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of climate change on cereal trade in Central Asia. This study takes Kazakhstan as an example to empirically analyze the effect of climate change on cereal trade by including them as determinants in the gravity model. Our results show that climatic changes in Kazakhstan, measured by precipitation and temperature, could increase the export of wheat and rice and the import of maize, and decrease the import of wheat. Specifically, as a major crop in Kazakhstan, increasing precipitation by 1 millimeter during the major cropping season from May to August, will significantly enhance export of wheat by 0.7% and reduce the import by 1.7%; increasing temperature by 1°C during the same cropping season will significantly increase export of wheat by 21.9% and reduce the import by 49.4%. As an important cereal trade country in the world, the dramatic adjustments of cereal trade patterns resulting from climate change in Kazakhstan might affect global food security.
format	article
author	Xiaohua Yu Hengrong Luo Hanjie Wang Jan-Henning Feil
author_facet	Xiaohua Yu Hengrong Luo Hanjie Wang Jan-Henning Feil
author_sort	Xiaohua Yu
title	Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan
title_short	Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan
title_full	Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan
title_fullStr	Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan
title_sort	climate change and agricultural trade in central asia: evidence from kazakhstan
publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/7acac6ffd6314e768ebddf5612826d92
work_keys_str_mv	AT xiaohuayu climatechangeandagriculturaltradeincentralasiaevidencefromkazakhstan AT hengrongluo climatechangeandagriculturaltradeincentralasiaevidencefromkazakhstan AT hanjiewang climatechangeandagriculturaltradeincentralasiaevidencefromkazakhstan AT janhenningfeil climatechangeandagriculturaltradeincentralasiaevidencefromkazakhstan
_version_	1718384060557950976

Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan

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