Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanz...

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Autores principales:	Philip Mzava, Patrick Valimba, Joel Nobert
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate dar es salaam flood frequency land cover rcm swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7b83c59c7d2648fea9f0db1bddcd0b47
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7b83c59c7d2648fea9f0db1bddcd0b472021-11-05T19:08:09ZQuantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.026https://doaj.org/article/7b83c59c7d2648fea9f0db1bddcd0b472021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2835https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A calibrated and validated SWAT rainfall-runoff model was used to generate flood hydrographs for the period 1969–2050 using historical rainfall data and projected rainfall based on the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model. Results showed that climate change has a greater impact on change in peak flows than land-cover change when the two are treated separately in theory. It was observed that, in the past, the probability of occurrence of urban flooding in the study area was likely to be increased up to 1.5-fold by climate change relative to land-cover change. In the future, this figure is estimated to decrease to 1.1-fold. The coupled effects of climate and land-cover changes cause a much bigger impact on change in peak flows than any separate scenario; this scenario represents the actual scenario on the ground. From the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes, the magnitudes of mean peak flows were determined to increase between 34.4 and 58.6% in the future relative to the past. However, the change in peak flows from combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will decrease by 36.3% in the future relative to the past; owing to the lesser variations in climate and land-cover changes in the future compared with those of the past. HIGHLIGHTS Investigate temporal variability of urban flood runoffs from the impacts of climate and land-cover changes.; Compare past and future peak flow trend magnitudes based on CORDEX-Africa RCM under RCP4.5.; Investigate changes in the historical and future intensities of urban flood runoffs.; Illustrate the probabilistic impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the recurrence intervals of urban floods.;Philip MzavaPatrick ValimbaJoel NobertIWA Publishingarticleclimatedar es salaamflood frequencyland coverrcmswatEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2835-2853 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate dar es salaam flood frequency land cover rcm swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate dar es salaam flood frequency land cover rcm swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Philip Mzava Patrick Valimba Joel Nobert Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
description	Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A calibrated and validated SWAT rainfall-runoff model was used to generate flood hydrographs for the period 1969–2050 using historical rainfall data and projected rainfall based on the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model. Results showed that climate change has a greater impact on change in peak flows than land-cover change when the two are treated separately in theory. It was observed that, in the past, the probability of occurrence of urban flooding in the study area was likely to be increased up to 1.5-fold by climate change relative to land-cover change. In the future, this figure is estimated to decrease to 1.1-fold. The coupled effects of climate and land-cover changes cause a much bigger impact on change in peak flows than any separate scenario; this scenario represents the actual scenario on the ground. From the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes, the magnitudes of mean peak flows were determined to increase between 34.4 and 58.6% in the future relative to the past. However, the change in peak flows from combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will decrease by 36.3% in the future relative to the past; owing to the lesser variations in climate and land-cover changes in the future compared with those of the past. HIGHLIGHTS Investigate temporal variability of urban flood runoffs from the impacts of climate and land-cover changes.; Compare past and future peak flow trend magnitudes based on CORDEX-Africa RCM under RCP4.5.; Investigate changes in the historical and future intensities of urban flood runoffs.; Illustrate the probabilistic impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the recurrence intervals of urban floods.;
format	article
author	Philip Mzava Patrick Valimba Joel Nobert
author_facet	Philip Mzava Patrick Valimba Joel Nobert
author_sort	Philip Mzava
title	Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
title_short	Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
title_full	Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
title_fullStr	Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
title_full_unstemmed	Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
title_sort	quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of dar es salaam, tanzania
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7b83c59c7d2648fea9f0db1bddcd0b47
work_keys_str_mv	AT philipmzava quantitativeanalysisoftheimpactsofclimateandlandcoverchangesonurbanfloodrunoffsacaseofdaressalaamtanzania AT patrickvalimba quantitativeanalysisoftheimpactsofclimateandlandcoverchangesonurbanfloodrunoffsacaseofdaressalaamtanzania AT joelnobert quantitativeanalysisoftheimpactsofclimateandlandcoverchangesonurbanfloodrunoffsacaseofdaressalaamtanzania
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Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

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