The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan

The province of Sindh reported the first COVID-19 case in Pakistan on 26th February 2020. The Government of Sindh has employed numerous control measures to limit its spread. However, for low-and middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the management protocols for controlling a pandemic are not alw...

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Autores principales:	Bilal Ahmed Usmani, Mustafain Ali, Muhammad Abul Hasan, Amna Rehana Siddiqui, Sameen Siddiqi, Aaron Guanliang Lim, Saad Ahmed Qazi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7bb7b6f6c9c54838b3dda2c20cbc65dc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7bb7b6f6c9c54838b3dda2c20cbc65dc2021-11-25T06:19:41ZThe Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/7bb7b6f6c9c54838b3dda2c20cbc65dc2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8601461/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The province of Sindh reported the first COVID-19 case in Pakistan on 26th February 2020. The Government of Sindh has employed numerous control measures to limit its spread. However, for low-and middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the management protocols for controlling a pandemic are not always as definitive as they would be in other developed nations. Given the dire socio-economic conditions of Sindh, continuation of province-wise lockdowns may inadvertently cause a potential economic breakdown. By using a data driven SEIR modelling framework, this paper describes the evolution of the epidemic projections because of government control measures. The data from reported COVID-19 prevalence and google mobility is used to parameterize the model at different time points. These time points correspond to the government’s call for advice on the prerequisite actions required to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in Sindh. Our model predicted the epidemic peak to occur by 18th June 2020 with approximately 3500 reported cases at that peak, this projection correlated with the actual recorded peak during the first wave of the disease in Sindh. The impact of the governmental control actions and religious ceremonies on the epidemic profile during this first wave of COVID-19 are clearly reflected in the model outcomes through variations in the epidemic peaks. We also report these variations by displaying the trajectory of the epidemics had the control measures been guided differently; the epidemic peak may have occurred as early as the end of May 2020 with approximately 5000 reported cases per day had there been no control measures and as late as August 2020 with only around 2000 cases at the peak had the lockdown continued, nearly flattening the epidemic curve.Bilal Ahmed UsmaniMustafain AliMuhammad Abul HasanAmna Rehana SiddiquiSameen SiddiqiAaron Guanliang LimSaad Ahmed QaziPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Bilal Ahmed Usmani Mustafain Ali Muhammad Abul Hasan Amna Rehana Siddiqui Sameen Siddiqi Aaron Guanliang Lim Saad Ahmed Qazi The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan
description	The province of Sindh reported the first COVID-19 case in Pakistan on 26th February 2020. The Government of Sindh has employed numerous control measures to limit its spread. However, for low-and middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the management protocols for controlling a pandemic are not always as definitive as they would be in other developed nations. Given the dire socio-economic conditions of Sindh, continuation of province-wise lockdowns may inadvertently cause a potential economic breakdown. By using a data driven SEIR modelling framework, this paper describes the evolution of the epidemic projections because of government control measures. The data from reported COVID-19 prevalence and google mobility is used to parameterize the model at different time points. These time points correspond to the government’s call for advice on the prerequisite actions required to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in Sindh. Our model predicted the epidemic peak to occur by 18th June 2020 with approximately 3500 reported cases at that peak, this projection correlated with the actual recorded peak during the first wave of the disease in Sindh. The impact of the governmental control actions and religious ceremonies on the epidemic profile during this first wave of COVID-19 are clearly reflected in the model outcomes through variations in the epidemic peaks. We also report these variations by displaying the trajectory of the epidemics had the control measures been guided differently; the epidemic peak may have occurred as early as the end of May 2020 with approximately 5000 reported cases per day had there been no control measures and as late as August 2020 with only around 2000 cases at the peak had the lockdown continued, nearly flattening the epidemic curve.
format	article
author	Bilal Ahmed Usmani Mustafain Ali Muhammad Abul Hasan Amna Rehana Siddiqui Sameen Siddiqi Aaron Guanliang Lim Saad Ahmed Qazi
author_facet	Bilal Ahmed Usmani Mustafain Ali Muhammad Abul Hasan Amna Rehana Siddiqui Sameen Siddiqi Aaron Guanliang Lim Saad Ahmed Qazi
author_sort	Bilal Ahmed Usmani
title	The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan
title_short	The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan
title_full	The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan
title_fullStr	The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan
title_full_unstemmed	The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan
title_sort	impact of disease control measures on the spread of covid-19 in the province of sindh, pakistan
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7bb7b6f6c9c54838b3dda2c20cbc65dc
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The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan

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