The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information

Abstract Emergencies often occur irregularly, such as infectious diseases, earthquakes, wars, floods, the diffusion and leakage of chemically toxic and harmful substances, etc. These emergencies can bring huge disasters to people, even worse, the time left for people to make critical decisions is us...

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Autores principales:	Ming Fu, Lifang Wang, Bingyun Zheng, Haiyan Shao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7bed42d6350e464491fae182e32840b0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7bed42d6350e464491fae182e32840b02021-12-05T12:11:34ZThe optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information10.1038/s41598-021-02917-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7bed42d6350e464491fae182e32840b02021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02917-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Emergencies often occur irregularly, such as infectious diseases, earthquakes, wars, floods, the diffusion and leakage of chemically toxic and harmful substances, etc. These emergencies can bring huge disasters to people, even worse, the time left for people to make critical decisions is usually very limited. When an emergency occurs, the most important thing for people is to make reasonable decisions as soon as possible to deal with the current problems, otherwise, the situation may deteriorate further. The paper proposes an emergency decision-making algorithm under the constraints of the limited time and incomplete information, the research is mainly carried out from the following aspects, firstly, we use the data structure of the hesitant fuzzy probabilistic linguistic set to collect the basic data after careful comparison, which has three advantages, (1) considering the hesitation in the decision-making process, each evaluation information is allowed to contain multiple values instead of just one value; (2) each evaluation value is followed by a probability value, which further describes the details of the evaluation information; (3) the data structure allows some probability information to be unknown, which effectively expands the application scope of the algorithm. Secondly, the maximization gap model is proposed to calculate unknown parameters, the model can distinguish alternatives with small differences. Thirdly, all the evaluation information will be aggregated by the dynamic hesitant probability fuzzy weighted arithmetic operator. Subsequently, an instance is given to illustrate the effectiveness and the accuracy of the algorithm proposed in the paper. Finally, the advantages of the proposed algorithm are further demonstrated by comparing it with other outstanding algorithms. The main contribution of the paper is that we propose the maximization gap model to obtain the unknown parameters, which can effectively and accurately distinguish alternatives with small differences.Ming FuLifang WangBingyun ZhengHaiyan ShaoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ming Fu Lifang Wang Bingyun Zheng Haiyan Shao The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information
description	Abstract Emergencies often occur irregularly, such as infectious diseases, earthquakes, wars, floods, the diffusion and leakage of chemically toxic and harmful substances, etc. These emergencies can bring huge disasters to people, even worse, the time left for people to make critical decisions is usually very limited. When an emergency occurs, the most important thing for people is to make reasonable decisions as soon as possible to deal with the current problems, otherwise, the situation may deteriorate further. The paper proposes an emergency decision-making algorithm under the constraints of the limited time and incomplete information, the research is mainly carried out from the following aspects, firstly, we use the data structure of the hesitant fuzzy probabilistic linguistic set to collect the basic data after careful comparison, which has three advantages, (1) considering the hesitation in the decision-making process, each evaluation information is allowed to contain multiple values instead of just one value; (2) each evaluation value is followed by a probability value, which further describes the details of the evaluation information; (3) the data structure allows some probability information to be unknown, which effectively expands the application scope of the algorithm. Secondly, the maximization gap model is proposed to calculate unknown parameters, the model can distinguish alternatives with small differences. Thirdly, all the evaluation information will be aggregated by the dynamic hesitant probability fuzzy weighted arithmetic operator. Subsequently, an instance is given to illustrate the effectiveness and the accuracy of the algorithm proposed in the paper. Finally, the advantages of the proposed algorithm are further demonstrated by comparing it with other outstanding algorithms. The main contribution of the paper is that we propose the maximization gap model to obtain the unknown parameters, which can effectively and accurately distinguish alternatives with small differences.
format	article
author	Ming Fu Lifang Wang Bingyun Zheng Haiyan Shao
author_facet	Ming Fu Lifang Wang Bingyun Zheng Haiyan Shao
author_sort	Ming Fu
title	The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information
title_short	The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information
title_full	The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information
title_fullStr	The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information
title_full_unstemmed	The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information
title_sort	optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7bed42d6350e464491fae182e32840b0
work_keys_str_mv	AT mingfu theoptimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation AT lifangwang theoptimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation AT bingyunzheng theoptimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation AT haiyanshao theoptimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation AT mingfu optimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation AT lifangwang optimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation AT bingyunzheng optimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation AT haiyanshao optimalemergencydecisionmakingmethodwithincompleteprobabilisticinformation
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The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information

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