Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China

Understanding monitor accurately and predicting drought conditions are necessary to prevent economic losses and natural disasters. Now, there is still a lack of comprehensive assessment of drought prediction in Xinjiang. In order to better predict the future drought trend, firstly we analyzed the tr...

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Autores principales:	Haiwei Zhang, Jia Song, Gang Wang, XiuYi Wu, Jun Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Drought Spatiotemporal Characteristic Climate change Wavelet Variance SPEI Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7c2006286acd4148bcf530aa429a77d0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7c2006286acd4148bcf530aa429a77d02021-12-01T04:51:52ZSpatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107712https://doaj.org/article/7c2006286acd4148bcf530aa429a77d02021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21003770https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XUnderstanding monitor accurately and predicting drought conditions are necessary to prevent economic losses and natural disasters. Now, there is still a lack of comprehensive assessment of drought prediction in Xinjiang. In order to better predict the future drought trend, firstly we analyzed the trends of SPEI and the magnitude and frequency of drought in selected surface meteorological stations from 1960 to 2017. Secondly, we compared drought trends and spatial distribution characteristics of SPEI and PDSI. Based on historical data from 1960 to 2017, the paper predicted the trends of SPEI and PDSI in the next five years. The results show that the winter SPEI has risen significantly, and there was a SPEI value mutation in 1994. The Spring, Summer and Autumn SPEI show an insignificant downward trend. It is relatively stable on other time scales , and there is no significant sudden change. It is inferred thatthe increasing trend of wetting that may occur under different time scales at NRX in 2021, winter and annual scales will continue to be humidified, and spring, summer, and autumn will continue to be arid. Droughts in NRX occur at least once every three years, which is a high frequency event. The prediction results of the artificial neutral network (ANN) method based on multilayer feed forward network show that probability of humidification at NRX is more likely in the future, and the prediction results of wavelet and Hurst index are basically consistent with that of ANN method.Haiwei ZhangJia SongGang WangXiuYi WuJun LiElsevierarticleDroughtSpatiotemporal CharacteristicClimate changeWavelet VarianceSPEIEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 127, Iss , Pp 107712- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Drought Spatiotemporal Characteristic Climate change Wavelet Variance SPEI Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Drought Spatiotemporal Characteristic Climate change Wavelet Variance SPEI Ecology QH540-549.5 Haiwei Zhang Jia Song Gang Wang XiuYi Wu Jun Li Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China
description	Understanding monitor accurately and predicting drought conditions are necessary to prevent economic losses and natural disasters. Now, there is still a lack of comprehensive assessment of drought prediction in Xinjiang. In order to better predict the future drought trend, firstly we analyzed the trends of SPEI and the magnitude and frequency of drought in selected surface meteorological stations from 1960 to 2017. Secondly, we compared drought trends and spatial distribution characteristics of SPEI and PDSI. Based on historical data from 1960 to 2017, the paper predicted the trends of SPEI and PDSI in the next five years. The results show that the winter SPEI has risen significantly, and there was a SPEI value mutation in 1994. The Spring, Summer and Autumn SPEI show an insignificant downward trend. It is relatively stable on other time scales , and there is no significant sudden change. It is inferred thatthe increasing trend of wetting that may occur under different time scales at NRX in 2021, winter and annual scales will continue to be humidified, and spring, summer, and autumn will continue to be arid. Droughts in NRX occur at least once every three years, which is a high frequency event. The prediction results of the artificial neutral network (ANN) method based on multilayer feed forward network show that probability of humidification at NRX is more likely in the future, and the prediction results of wavelet and Hurst index are basically consistent with that of ANN method.
format	article
author	Haiwei Zhang Jia Song Gang Wang XiuYi Wu Jun Li
author_facet	Haiwei Zhang Jia Song Gang Wang XiuYi Wu Jun Li
author_sort	Haiwei Zhang
title	Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China
title_short	Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China
title_full	Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China
title_fullStr	Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China
title_full_unstemmed	Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China
title_sort	spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern xinjiang, china
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7c2006286acd4148bcf530aa429a77d0
work_keys_str_mv	AT haiweizhang spatiotemporalcharacteristicandforecastofdroughtinnorthernxinjiangchina AT jiasong spatiotemporalcharacteristicandforecastofdroughtinnorthernxinjiangchina AT gangwang spatiotemporalcharacteristicandforecastofdroughtinnorthernxinjiangchina AT xiuyiwu spatiotemporalcharacteristicandforecastofdroughtinnorthernxinjiangchina AT junli spatiotemporalcharacteristicandforecastofdroughtinnorthernxinjiangchina
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Spatiotemporal characteristic and forecast of drought in northern Xinjiang, China

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