Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.

Human behavioral change around biosecurity in response to increased awareness of disease risks is a critical factor in modeling animal disease dynamics. Here, biosecurity is referred to as implementing control measures to decrease the chance of animal disease spreading. However, social dynamics are...

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Autores principales:	Qihui Yang, Don M Gruenbacher, Gary L Brase, Jessica L Heier Stamm, Scott A DeLoach, Caterina M Scoglio
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7c7d5a1aa6ff4b1188cac23b754773db
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7c7d5a1aa6ff4b1188cac23b754773db2021-12-02T20:10:05ZSimulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0253498https://doaj.org/article/7c7d5a1aa6ff4b1188cac23b754773db2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253498https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Human behavioral change around biosecurity in response to increased awareness of disease risks is a critical factor in modeling animal disease dynamics. Here, biosecurity is referred to as implementing control measures to decrease the chance of animal disease spreading. However, social dynamics are largely ignored in traditional livestock disease models. Not accounting for these dynamics may lead to substantial bias in the predicted epidemic trajectory. In this research, an agent-based model is developed by integrating the human decision-making process into epidemiological processes. We simulate human behavioral change on biosecurity practices following an increase in the regional disease incidence. We apply the model to beef cattle production systems in southwest Kansas, United States, to examine the impact of human behavior factors on a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The simulation results indicate that heterogeneity of individuals regarding risk attitudes significantly affects the epidemic dynamics, and human-behavior factors need to be considered for improved epidemic forecasting. With the same initial biosecurity status, increasing the percentage of risk-averse producers in the total population using a targeted strategy can more effectively reduce the number of infected producer locations and cattle losses compared to a random strategy. In addition, the reduction in epidemic size caused by the shifting of producers' risk attitudes towards risk-aversion is heavily dependent on the initial biosecurity level. A comprehensive investigation of the initial biosecurity status is recommended to inform risk communication strategy design.Qihui YangDon M GruenbacherGary L BraseJessica L Heier StammScott A DeLoachCaterina M ScoglioPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0253498 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Qihui Yang Don M Gruenbacher Gary L Brase Jessica L Heier Stamm Scott A DeLoach Caterina M Scoglio Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.
description	Human behavioral change around biosecurity in response to increased awareness of disease risks is a critical factor in modeling animal disease dynamics. Here, biosecurity is referred to as implementing control measures to decrease the chance of animal disease spreading. However, social dynamics are largely ignored in traditional livestock disease models. Not accounting for these dynamics may lead to substantial bias in the predicted epidemic trajectory. In this research, an agent-based model is developed by integrating the human decision-making process into epidemiological processes. We simulate human behavioral change on biosecurity practices following an increase in the regional disease incidence. We apply the model to beef cattle production systems in southwest Kansas, United States, to examine the impact of human behavior factors on a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The simulation results indicate that heterogeneity of individuals regarding risk attitudes significantly affects the epidemic dynamics, and human-behavior factors need to be considered for improved epidemic forecasting. With the same initial biosecurity status, increasing the percentage of risk-averse producers in the total population using a targeted strategy can more effectively reduce the number of infected producer locations and cattle losses compared to a random strategy. In addition, the reduction in epidemic size caused by the shifting of producers' risk attitudes towards risk-aversion is heavily dependent on the initial biosecurity level. A comprehensive investigation of the initial biosecurity status is recommended to inform risk communication strategy design.
format	article
author	Qihui Yang Don M Gruenbacher Gary L Brase Jessica L Heier Stamm Scott A DeLoach Caterina M Scoglio
author_facet	Qihui Yang Don M Gruenbacher Gary L Brase Jessica L Heier Stamm Scott A DeLoach Caterina M Scoglio
author_sort	Qihui Yang
title	Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.
title_short	Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.
title_full	Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.
title_fullStr	Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.
title_full_unstemmed	Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.
title_sort	simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: the case of the us beef cattle industry.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7c7d5a1aa6ff4b1188cac23b754773db
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Simulating human behavioral changes in livestock production systems during an epidemic: The case of the US beef cattle industry.

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