Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China

High-quality development (HQD) is the requirement for adapting to the changes in the main contradictions of Chinese society and achieving sustained and stable development. Based on the discussion of its connotation, this study constructed an evaluation model covering five aspects of society, economy...

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Autores principales:	Long Jiang, Qiting Zuo, Junxia Ma, Zhizhuo Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	High-quality development Indicator system Scenario simulation The SD model The Yellow River Basin Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7cdea16290b946e18ca85631d15ccef5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7cdea16290b946e18ca85631d15ccef52021-12-01T04:57:36ZEvaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107994https://doaj.org/article/7cdea16290b946e18ca85631d15ccef52021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21006592https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XHigh-quality development (HQD) is the requirement for adapting to the changes in the main contradictions of Chinese society and achieving sustained and stable development. Based on the discussion of its connotation, this study constructed an evaluation model covering five aspects of society, economy, resources, ecology, and culture. Then we used the obstacle diagnosis model to analyze the main obstacle factors of restricting the improvement of HQD level. Finally, 4 future policy scenarios were designed under the system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the variation of the future development in each province along the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The results show that: (1) The level of HQD in the YRB changed dynamically over time, and it has also improved to varying degrees in all provinces. (2) The cultural subsystem hindered the further improvement of the HQD; for the indicator layer, the proportion of cultural industry in GDP is the main obstacle factor for most provinces. (3) Speeding up economic development and increasing ecological protection is the optimal development path of the YRB. Scientific evaluation of the regional HQD status and simulating the development situation under different scenarios can improve the accuracy and efficiency of managers’ decision-making.Long JiangQiting ZuoJunxia MaZhizhuo ZhangElsevierarticleHigh-quality developmentIndicator systemScenario simulationThe SD modelThe Yellow River BasinEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 129, Iss , Pp 107994- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	High-quality development Indicator system Scenario simulation The SD model The Yellow River Basin Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	High-quality development Indicator system Scenario simulation The SD model The Yellow River Basin Ecology QH540-549.5 Long Jiang Qiting Zuo Junxia Ma Zhizhuo Zhang Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
description	High-quality development (HQD) is the requirement for adapting to the changes in the main contradictions of Chinese society and achieving sustained and stable development. Based on the discussion of its connotation, this study constructed an evaluation model covering five aspects of society, economy, resources, ecology, and culture. Then we used the obstacle diagnosis model to analyze the main obstacle factors of restricting the improvement of HQD level. Finally, 4 future policy scenarios were designed under the system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the variation of the future development in each province along the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The results show that: (1) The level of HQD in the YRB changed dynamically over time, and it has also improved to varying degrees in all provinces. (2) The cultural subsystem hindered the further improvement of the HQD; for the indicator layer, the proportion of cultural industry in GDP is the main obstacle factor for most provinces. (3) Speeding up economic development and increasing ecological protection is the optimal development path of the YRB. Scientific evaluation of the regional HQD status and simulating the development situation under different scenarios can improve the accuracy and efficiency of managers’ decision-making.
format	article
author	Long Jiang Qiting Zuo Junxia Ma Zhizhuo Zhang
author_facet	Long Jiang Qiting Zuo Junxia Ma Zhizhuo Zhang
author_sort	Long Jiang
title	Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_short	Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_full	Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_fullStr	Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China
title_sort	evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: a case study of the yellow river basin, china
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7cdea16290b946e18ca85631d15ccef5
work_keys_str_mv	AT longjiang evaluationandpredictionofthelevelofhighqualitydevelopmentacasestudyoftheyellowriverbasinchina AT qitingzuo evaluationandpredictionofthelevelofhighqualitydevelopmentacasestudyoftheyellowriverbasinchina AT junxiama evaluationandpredictionofthelevelofhighqualitydevelopmentacasestudyoftheyellowriverbasinchina AT zhizhuozhang evaluationandpredictionofthelevelofhighqualitydevelopmentacasestudyoftheyellowriverbasinchina
_version_	1718405670200410112

Evaluation and prediction of the level of high-quality development: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China

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