Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests

The structure and functioning of temperate forests are shifting due to changes in climate. Foreseeing the trajectory of such changes is critical to implementing adequate management practices and defining long-term strategies. This study investigated future shifts in temperate forest species composit...

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Autores principales:	Juan García-Duro, Albert Ciceu, Serban Chivulescu, Ovidiu Badea, Mihai A. Tanase, Cristina Aponte
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	LANDIS-II PnET climate change Southern Carpathians forest biomass production Plant ecology QK900-989
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7d0bf82f0de4450e8eb7d7a4717263d8
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:7d0bf82f0de4450e8eb7d7a4717263d8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7d0bf82f0de4450e8eb7d7a4717263d82021-11-25T17:37:13ZShifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests10.3390/f121114341999-4907https://doaj.org/article/7d0bf82f0de4450e8eb7d7a4717263d82021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/11/1434https://doaj.org/toc/1999-4907The structure and functioning of temperate forests are shifting due to changes in climate. Foreseeing the trajectory of such changes is critical to implementing adequate management practices and defining long-term strategies. This study investigated future shifts in temperate forest species composition and abundance expected to occur due to climate change. It also identified the ecological mechanisms underpinning such changes. Using an altitudinal gradient in the Romanian Carpathian temperate forests encompassing several vegetation types, we explored forest change using the Landis-II landscape model coupled with the PnET ecophysiological process model. We specifically assessed the change in biomass, forest production, species composition and natural disturbance impacts under three climate change scenarios, namely, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The results show that, over the short term (15 years), biomass across all forest types in the altitudinal gradient will increase, and species composition will remain unaltered. In contrast, over the medium and long terms (after 2040), changes in species composition will accelerate, with some species spreading (e.g., <i>Abies alba</i> Mill.) and others declining (e.g., <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L.), particularly under the most extreme climate change scenario. Some forest types (e.g., <i>Picea abies</i> (L.) karst forests) in the Southern Carpathians will notably increase their standing biomass due to climate change, compared to other types, such as <i>Quercus</i> forests. Our findings suggest that climate change will alter the forest composition and species abundance, with some forests being particularly vulnerable to climate change, e.g., <i>F. sylvatica</i> forests. As far as productivity and forest composition changes are concerned, management practices should accommodate the new conditions in order to mitigate climate change impacts.Juan García-DuroAlbert CiceuSerban ChivulescuOvidiu BadeaMihai A. TanaseCristina AponteMDPI AGarticleLANDIS-IIPnETclimate changeSouthern Carpathiansforest biomassproductionPlant ecologyQK900-989ENForests, Vol 12, Iss 1434, p 1434 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	LANDIS-II PnET climate change Southern Carpathians forest biomass production Plant ecology QK900-989
spellingShingle	LANDIS-II PnET climate change Southern Carpathians forest biomass production Plant ecology QK900-989 Juan García-Duro Albert Ciceu Serban Chivulescu Ovidiu Badea Mihai A. Tanase Cristina Aponte Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests
description	The structure and functioning of temperate forests are shifting due to changes in climate. Foreseeing the trajectory of such changes is critical to implementing adequate management practices and defining long-term strategies. This study investigated future shifts in temperate forest species composition and abundance expected to occur due to climate change. It also identified the ecological mechanisms underpinning such changes. Using an altitudinal gradient in the Romanian Carpathian temperate forests encompassing several vegetation types, we explored forest change using the Landis-II landscape model coupled with the PnET ecophysiological process model. We specifically assessed the change in biomass, forest production, species composition and natural disturbance impacts under three climate change scenarios, namely, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The results show that, over the short term (15 years), biomass across all forest types in the altitudinal gradient will increase, and species composition will remain unaltered. In contrast, over the medium and long terms (after 2040), changes in species composition will accelerate, with some species spreading (e.g., <i>Abies alba</i> Mill.) and others declining (e.g., <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L.), particularly under the most extreme climate change scenario. Some forest types (e.g., <i>Picea abies</i> (L.) karst forests) in the Southern Carpathians will notably increase their standing biomass due to climate change, compared to other types, such as <i>Quercus</i> forests. Our findings suggest that climate change will alter the forest composition and species abundance, with some forests being particularly vulnerable to climate change, e.g., <i>F. sylvatica</i> forests. As far as productivity and forest composition changes are concerned, management practices should accommodate the new conditions in order to mitigate climate change impacts.
format	article
author	Juan García-Duro Albert Ciceu Serban Chivulescu Ovidiu Badea Mihai A. Tanase Cristina Aponte
author_facet	Juan García-Duro Albert Ciceu Serban Chivulescu Ovidiu Badea Mihai A. Tanase Cristina Aponte
author_sort	Juan García-Duro
title	Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests
title_short	Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests
title_full	Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests
title_fullStr	Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests
title_full_unstemmed	Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests
title_sort	shifts in forest species composition and abundance under climate change scenarios in southern carpathian romanian temperate forests
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7d0bf82f0de4450e8eb7d7a4717263d8
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Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests

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