Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins

Abstract Climate change, population growth, urbanization, and interactions thereof may alter the water supply‐demand balance and lead to shifts in water shortage characteristics at different timescales. This study proposes an approach to improve the vulnerability assessments of U.S. river basins to...

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Autores principales:	Hadi Heidari, Mazdak Arabi, Travis Warziniack
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Materias:	water shortage climate change supply demand WEAP model VIC model Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7d92d72fb3af4493b743e02a8bfa0ce8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7d92d72fb3af4493b743e02a8bfa0ce82021-11-23T22:36:10ZVulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins2328-427710.1029/2021EF002278https://doaj.org/article/7d92d72fb3af4493b743e02a8bfa0ce82021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002278https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Abstract Climate change, population growth, urbanization, and interactions thereof may alter the water supply‐demand balance and lead to shifts in water shortage characteristics at different timescales. This study proposes an approach to improve the vulnerability assessments of U.S. river basins to the shortage at the interannual to decadal timescales by characterizing shifts in intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) of water shortage events from current (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) periods. The results indicate that under the driest future climate projection, the frequency and intensity of over‐year (D > 12 months) events at the monthly scale and decadal (D > 10 years) events at the annual scale tend to increase in the Southwest, Southern, middle Great Plain, and Great Lakes regions. Conversely, the frequency of interannual (D < 12 months) events at the monthly scale and annual (D > 1 year) and multi‐year (D > 3 years) events at the annual scale is likely to increase in the West Coast regions. Besides, river basins with a higher rate of aridification are likely to experience more frequent over‐year (D > 12 months) events, while river basins with a decrease in aridification were projected to undergo more frequent interannual (D < 12 months) events due to an increase in the variability of extreme weather anomalies within a year. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand and characterize vulnerability to water shortage under current and future water supply‐demand conditions and can inform the development of effective mitigation and/or adaptation strategies.Hadi HeidariMazdak ArabiTravis WarziniackAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articlewater shortageclimate changesupplydemandWEAP modelVIC modelEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350EcologyQH540-549.5ENEarth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	water shortage climate change supply demand WEAP model VIC model Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	water shortage climate change supply demand WEAP model VIC model Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Hadi Heidari Mazdak Arabi Travis Warziniack Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins
description	Abstract Climate change, population growth, urbanization, and interactions thereof may alter the water supply‐demand balance and lead to shifts in water shortage characteristics at different timescales. This study proposes an approach to improve the vulnerability assessments of U.S. river basins to the shortage at the interannual to decadal timescales by characterizing shifts in intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) of water shortage events from current (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) periods. The results indicate that under the driest future climate projection, the frequency and intensity of over‐year (D > 12 months) events at the monthly scale and decadal (D > 10 years) events at the annual scale tend to increase in the Southwest, Southern, middle Great Plain, and Great Lakes regions. Conversely, the frequency of interannual (D < 12 months) events at the monthly scale and annual (D > 1 year) and multi‐year (D > 3 years) events at the annual scale is likely to increase in the West Coast regions. Besides, river basins with a higher rate of aridification are likely to experience more frequent over‐year (D > 12 months) events, while river basins with a decrease in aridification were projected to undergo more frequent interannual (D < 12 months) events due to an increase in the variability of extreme weather anomalies within a year. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand and characterize vulnerability to water shortage under current and future water supply‐demand conditions and can inform the development of effective mitigation and/or adaptation strategies.
format	article
author	Hadi Heidari Mazdak Arabi Travis Warziniack
author_facet	Hadi Heidari Mazdak Arabi Travis Warziniack
author_sort	Hadi Heidari
title	Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins
title_short	Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins
title_full	Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins
title_fullStr	Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins
title_full_unstemmed	Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins
title_sort	vulnerability to water shortage under current and future water supply‐demand conditions across u.s. river basins
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7d92d72fb3af4493b743e02a8bfa0ce8
work_keys_str_mv	AT hadiheidari vulnerabilitytowatershortageundercurrentandfuturewatersupplydemandconditionsacrossusriverbasins AT mazdakarabi vulnerabilitytowatershortageundercurrentandfuturewatersupplydemandconditionsacrossusriverbasins AT traviswarziniack vulnerabilitytowatershortageundercurrentandfuturewatersupplydemandconditionsacrossusriverbasins
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Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins

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