Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior

Abstract Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves—and be perceived by others—as not pre...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Baltazar Espinoza, Madhav Marathe, Samarth Swarup, Mugdha Thakur
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7dd0b1f8a493495e877672d6c09288b4
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:7dd0b1f8a493495e877672d6c09288b4
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7dd0b1f8a493495e877672d6c09288b42021-12-02T18:37:11ZAsymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior10.1038/s41598-021-98999-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7dd0b1f8a493495e877672d6c09288b42021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98999-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves—and be perceived by others—as not presenting a risk of infection. Yet, many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates the behavioral decisions of individuals, based on a projection of the system’s future state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals’ risk misperception in the presence of non-symptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of non-symptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals’ behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.Baltazar EspinozaMadhav MaratheSamarth SwarupMugdha ThakurNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Baltazar Espinoza Madhav Marathe Samarth Swarup Mugdha Thakur Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
description	Abstract Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves—and be perceived by others—as not presenting a risk of infection. Yet, many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates the behavioral decisions of individuals, based on a projection of the system’s future state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals’ risk misperception in the presence of non-symptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of non-symptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals’ behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.
format	article
author	Baltazar Espinoza Madhav Marathe Samarth Swarup Mugdha Thakur
author_facet	Baltazar Espinoza Madhav Marathe Samarth Swarup Mugdha Thakur
author_sort	Baltazar Espinoza
title	Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
title_short	Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
title_full	Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
title_fullStr	Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
title_full_unstemmed	Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
title_sort	asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7dd0b1f8a493495e877672d6c09288b4
work_keys_str_mv	AT baltazarespinoza asymptomaticindividualscanincreasethefinalepidemicsizeunderadaptivehumanbehavior AT madhavmarathe asymptomaticindividualscanincreasethefinalepidemicsizeunderadaptivehumanbehavior AT samarthswarup asymptomaticindividualscanincreasethefinalepidemicsizeunderadaptivehumanbehavior AT mugdhathakur asymptomaticindividualscanincreasethefinalepidemicsizeunderadaptivehumanbehavior
_version_	1718377806640971776

Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior

Ejemplares similares