Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks

Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques...

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Autores principales:	Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7e6f7fcc30c3475fa6769a280c10206d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7e6f7fcc30c3475fa6769a280c10206d2021-12-02T17:06:09ZCounteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks10.1038/s41467-017-01033-12041-1723https://doaj.org/article/7e6f7fcc30c3475fa6769a280c10206d2017-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01033-1https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.Sen PeiJeffrey ShamanNature PortfolioarticleScienceQENNature Communications, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Science Q
spellingShingle	Science Q Sen Pei Jeffrey Shaman Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
description	Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.
format	article
author	Sen Pei Jeffrey Shaman
author_facet	Sen Pei Jeffrey Shaman
author_sort	Sen Pei
title	Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_short	Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_full	Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_fullStr	Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed	Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_sort	counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/7e6f7fcc30c3475fa6769a280c10206d
work_keys_str_mv	AT senpei counteractingstructuralerrorsinensembleforecastofinfluenzaoutbreaks AT jeffreyshaman counteractingstructuralerrorsinensembleforecastofinfluenzaoutbreaks
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Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks

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