Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics

Abstract The pandemic of COVID-19 has become one of the greatest threats to human health, causing severe disruptions in the global supply chain, and compromising health care delivery worldwide. Although government authorities sought to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, by restricting travel and in-p...

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Autores principales:	Xingyu Li, Amin Ghadami, John M. Drake, Pejman Rohani, Bogdan I. Epureanu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7e751cd9fff6447cbc3976f40ac7e172
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7e751cd9fff6447cbc3976f40ac7e1722021-12-02T16:31:02ZMathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics10.1038/s41598-021-94619-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7e751cd9fff6447cbc3976f40ac7e1722021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94619-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The pandemic of COVID-19 has become one of the greatest threats to human health, causing severe disruptions in the global supply chain, and compromising health care delivery worldwide. Although government authorities sought to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, by restricting travel and in-person activities, failure to deploy time-sensitive strategies in ramping-up of critical resource production exacerbated the outbreak. Here, we developed a mathematical model to analyze the effects of the interaction between supply chain disruption and infectious disease dynamics using coupled production and disease networks built on global data. Analysis of the supply chain model suggests that time-sensitive containment strategies could be created to balance objectives in pandemic control and economic losses, leading to a spatiotemporal separation of infection peaks that alleviates the societal impact of the disease. A lean resource allocation strategy can reduce the impact of supply chain shortages from 11.91 to 1.11% in North America. Our model highlights the importance of cross-sectoral coordination and region-wise collaboration to optimally contain a pandemic and provides a framework that could advance the containment and model-based decision making for future pandemics.Xingyu LiAmin GhadamiJohn M. DrakePejman RohaniBogdan I. EpureanuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xingyu Li Amin Ghadami John M. Drake Pejman Rohani Bogdan I. Epureanu Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics
description	Abstract The pandemic of COVID-19 has become one of the greatest threats to human health, causing severe disruptions in the global supply chain, and compromising health care delivery worldwide. Although government authorities sought to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, by restricting travel and in-person activities, failure to deploy time-sensitive strategies in ramping-up of critical resource production exacerbated the outbreak. Here, we developed a mathematical model to analyze the effects of the interaction between supply chain disruption and infectious disease dynamics using coupled production and disease networks built on global data. Analysis of the supply chain model suggests that time-sensitive containment strategies could be created to balance objectives in pandemic control and economic losses, leading to a spatiotemporal separation of infection peaks that alleviates the societal impact of the disease. A lean resource allocation strategy can reduce the impact of supply chain shortages from 11.91 to 1.11% in North America. Our model highlights the importance of cross-sectoral coordination and region-wise collaboration to optimally contain a pandemic and provides a framework that could advance the containment and model-based decision making for future pandemics.
format	article
author	Xingyu Li Amin Ghadami John M. Drake Pejman Rohani Bogdan I. Epureanu
author_facet	Xingyu Li Amin Ghadami John M. Drake Pejman Rohani Bogdan I. Epureanu
author_sort	Xingyu Li
title	Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics
title_short	Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics
title_full	Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics
title_fullStr	Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics
title_full_unstemmed	Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics
title_sort	mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and covid-19 dynamics
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7e751cd9fff6447cbc3976f40ac7e172
work_keys_str_mv	AT xingyuli mathematicalmodelofthefeedbackbetweenglobalsupplychaindisruptionandcovid19dynamics AT aminghadami mathematicalmodelofthefeedbackbetweenglobalsupplychaindisruptionandcovid19dynamics AT johnmdrake mathematicalmodelofthefeedbackbetweenglobalsupplychaindisruptionandcovid19dynamics AT pejmanrohani mathematicalmodelofthefeedbackbetweenglobalsupplychaindisruptionandcovid19dynamics AT bogdaniepureanu mathematicalmodelofthefeedbackbetweenglobalsupplychaindisruptionandcovid19dynamics
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Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics

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