Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.

The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distributio...

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Autores principales:	Guo-Jing Yang, Barry W Brook, Corey J A Bradshaw
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2009
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7f5dce9637aa4fe5b8c353f28c6b8f5c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7f5dce9637aa4fe5b8c353f28c6b8f5c2021-11-25T06:32:58ZPredicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0000385https://doaj.org/article/7f5dce9637aa4fe5b8c353f28c6b8f5c2009-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/19238191/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distribution of the most efficient and cost-effective mosquito control. We analysed a 15-year time series of monthly abundance of Aedes vigilax, a tropical mosquito species from northern Australia, to determine periodicity and drivers of population peaks (high-density outbreaks). Two sets of density-dependent models were used to examine the correlation between mosquito abundance peaks and the environmental drivers of peaks or troughs (low-density periods). The seasonal peaks of reproduction (r) and abundance (N(peak)) occur at the beginning of September and early November, respectively. The combination of low mosquito abundance and a low frequency of a high tide exceeding 7 m in the previous low-abundance (trough) period were the most parsimonious predictors of a peak's magnitude, with this model explaining over 50% of the deviance in N(peak). Model weights, estimated using AIC(c), were also relatively high for those including monthly maximum tide height, monthly accumulated tide height or total rainfall per month in the trough, with high values in the trough correlating negatively with the onset of a high-abundance peak. These findings illustrate that basic environmental monitoring data can be coupled with relatively simple density feedback models to predict the timing and magnitude of mosquito abundance peaks. Decision-makers can use these methods to determine optimal levels of control (i.e., least-cost measures yielding the largest decline in mosquito abundance) and so reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in human populations.Guo-Jing YangBarry W BrookCorey J A BradshawPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 3, Iss 2, p e385 (2009)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Guo-Jing Yang Barry W Brook Corey J A Bradshaw Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.
description	The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distribution of the most efficient and cost-effective mosquito control. We analysed a 15-year time series of monthly abundance of Aedes vigilax, a tropical mosquito species from northern Australia, to determine periodicity and drivers of population peaks (high-density outbreaks). Two sets of density-dependent models were used to examine the correlation between mosquito abundance peaks and the environmental drivers of peaks or troughs (low-density periods). The seasonal peaks of reproduction (r) and abundance (N(peak)) occur at the beginning of September and early November, respectively. The combination of low mosquito abundance and a low frequency of a high tide exceeding 7 m in the previous low-abundance (trough) period were the most parsimonious predictors of a peak's magnitude, with this model explaining over 50% of the deviance in N(peak). Model weights, estimated using AIC(c), were also relatively high for those including monthly maximum tide height, monthly accumulated tide height or total rainfall per month in the trough, with high values in the trough correlating negatively with the onset of a high-abundance peak. These findings illustrate that basic environmental monitoring data can be coupled with relatively simple density feedback models to predict the timing and magnitude of mosquito abundance peaks. Decision-makers can use these methods to determine optimal levels of control (i.e., least-cost measures yielding the largest decline in mosquito abundance) and so reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in human populations.
format	article
author	Guo-Jing Yang Barry W Brook Corey J A Bradshaw
author_facet	Guo-Jing Yang Barry W Brook Corey J A Bradshaw
author_sort	Guo-Jing Yang
title	Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.
title_short	Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.
title_full	Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.
title_fullStr	Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.
title_sort	predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2009
url	https://doaj.org/article/7f5dce9637aa4fe5b8c353f28c6b8f5c
work_keys_str_mv	AT guojingyang predictingthetimingandmagnitudeoftropicalmosquitopopulationpeaksformaximizingcontrolefficiency AT barrywbrook predictingthetimingandmagnitudeoftropicalmosquitopopulationpeaksformaximizingcontrolefficiency AT coreyjabradshaw predictingthetimingandmagnitudeoftropicalmosquitopopulationpeaksformaximizingcontrolefficiency
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Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency.

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