Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East

This study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspectiv...

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Autores principales:	Sara Karami, Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis, Saviz Sehat Kashani, Mehdi Rahnama, Alireza Rashki
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	dust forecasting models remote sensing cyclones frontal dust storms Shamal Middle East Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7f80eabad8de467ea159592a6a18a570
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7f80eabad8de467ea159592a6a18a5702021-11-25T17:42:58ZEvaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East10.3390/geosciences111104582076-3263https://doaj.org/article/7f80eabad8de467ea159592a6a18a5702021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/11/458https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3263This study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspective. The performance of 9 operational dust models in forecasting these dust events in the Middle East is qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated against Terra-MODIS observations and AERONET measurements during the dust events. The comparison of model AOD outputs with Terra-MODIS retrievals reveals that despite the significant discrepancies, all models have a relatively acceptable performance in forecasting the AOD patterns in the Middle East. The models enable to represent the high AODs along the dust plumes, although they underestimate them, especially for cyclonic dust storms. In general, the outputs of the NASA-GEOS and DREAM8-MACC models present greater similarity with the satellite and AERONET observations in most of the cases, also exhibiting the highest correlation coefficient, although it is difficult to introduce a single model as the best for all cases. Model AOD predictions over the AERONET stations showed that DREAM8-MACC exhibited the highest R<sup>2</sup> of 0.78, followed by NASA_GEOS model (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.74), which both initially use MODIS data assimilation. Although the outputs of all models correspond to valid time more than 24 h after the initial time, the effect of data assimilation on increasing the accuracy is important. The different dust emission schemes, soil and vegetation mapping, initial and boundary meteorological conditions and spatial resolution between the models, are the main factors influencing the differences in forecasting the dust AODs in the Middle East.Sara KaramiDimitris G. KaskaoutisSaviz Sehat KashaniMehdi RahnamaAlireza RashkiMDPI AGarticledust forecasting modelsremote sensingcyclonesfrontal dust stormsShamalMiddle EastGeologyQE1-996.5ENGeosciences, Vol 11, Iss 458, p 458 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	dust forecasting models remote sensing cyclones frontal dust storms Shamal Middle East Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	dust forecasting models remote sensing cyclones frontal dust storms Shamal Middle East Geology QE1-996.5 Sara Karami Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis Saviz Sehat Kashani Mehdi Rahnama Alireza Rashki Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
description	This study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspective. The performance of 9 operational dust models in forecasting these dust events in the Middle East is qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated against Terra-MODIS observations and AERONET measurements during the dust events. The comparison of model AOD outputs with Terra-MODIS retrievals reveals that despite the significant discrepancies, all models have a relatively acceptable performance in forecasting the AOD patterns in the Middle East. The models enable to represent the high AODs along the dust plumes, although they underestimate them, especially for cyclonic dust storms. In general, the outputs of the NASA-GEOS and DREAM8-MACC models present greater similarity with the satellite and AERONET observations in most of the cases, also exhibiting the highest correlation coefficient, although it is difficult to introduce a single model as the best for all cases. Model AOD predictions over the AERONET stations showed that DREAM8-MACC exhibited the highest R<sup>2</sup> of 0.78, followed by NASA_GEOS model (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.74), which both initially use MODIS data assimilation. Although the outputs of all models correspond to valid time more than 24 h after the initial time, the effect of data assimilation on increasing the accuracy is important. The different dust emission schemes, soil and vegetation mapping, initial and boundary meteorological conditions and spatial resolution between the models, are the main factors influencing the differences in forecasting the dust AODs in the Middle East.
format	article
author	Sara Karami Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis Saviz Sehat Kashani Mehdi Rahnama Alireza Rashki
author_facet	Sara Karami Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis Saviz Sehat Kashani Mehdi Rahnama Alireza Rashki
author_sort	Sara Karami
title	Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
title_short	Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
title_full	Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
title_fullStr	Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
title_sort	evaluation of nine operational models in forecasting different types of synoptic dust events in the middle east
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7f80eabad8de467ea159592a6a18a570
work_keys_str_mv	AT sarakarami evaluationofnineoperationalmodelsinforecastingdifferenttypesofsynopticdusteventsinthemiddleeast AT dimitrisgkaskaoutis evaluationofnineoperationalmodelsinforecastingdifferenttypesofsynopticdusteventsinthemiddleeast AT savizsehatkashani evaluationofnineoperationalmodelsinforecastingdifferenttypesofsynopticdusteventsinthemiddleeast AT mehdirahnama evaluationofnineoperationalmodelsinforecastingdifferenttypesofsynopticdusteventsinthemiddleeast AT alirezarashki evaluationofnineoperationalmodelsinforecastingdifferenttypesofsynopticdusteventsinthemiddleeast
_version_	1718412050804244480

Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East

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