Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7

Abstract Although mean efficacy of multivalent pneumococcus vaccines has been intensively studied, variance in vaccine efficacy (VE) has been overlooked. Different net individual protection across settings can be driven by environmental conditions, local serotype and clonal composition, as well as b...

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Autor principal:	Erida Gjini
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7fcc7c9529e444bc8981afefce3020c6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7fcc7c9529e444bc8981afefce3020c62021-12-02T16:06:21ZGeographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV710.1038/s41598-017-02955-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7fcc7c9529e444bc8981afefce3020c62017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02955-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Although mean efficacy of multivalent pneumococcus vaccines has been intensively studied, variance in vaccine efficacy (VE) has been overlooked. Different net individual protection across settings can be driven by environmental conditions, local serotype and clonal composition, as well as by socio-demographic and genetic host factors. Understanding efficacy variation has implications for population-level effectiveness and other eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Here I show that realized VE can vary across epidemiological settings, by applying a multi-site-one-model approach to data post-vaccination. I analyse serotype prevalence dynamics following PCV7, in asymptomatic carriage in children attending day care in Portugal, Norway, France, Greece, Hungary and Hong-Kong. Model fitting to each dataset provides site-specific estimates for vaccine efficacy against acquisition, and pneumococcal transmission parameters. According to this model, variable serotype replacement across sites can be explained through variable PCV7 efficacy, ranging from 40% in Norway to 10% in Hong-Kong. While the details of how this effect is achieved remain to be determined, here I report three factors negatively associated with the VE readout, including initial prevalence of serotype 19F, daily mean temperature, and the Gini index. The study warrants more attention on local modulators of vaccine performance and calls for predictive frameworks within and across populations.Erida GjiniNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Erida Gjini Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7
description	Abstract Although mean efficacy of multivalent pneumococcus vaccines has been intensively studied, variance in vaccine efficacy (VE) has been overlooked. Different net individual protection across settings can be driven by environmental conditions, local serotype and clonal composition, as well as by socio-demographic and genetic host factors. Understanding efficacy variation has implications for population-level effectiveness and other eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Here I show that realized VE can vary across epidemiological settings, by applying a multi-site-one-model approach to data post-vaccination. I analyse serotype prevalence dynamics following PCV7, in asymptomatic carriage in children attending day care in Portugal, Norway, France, Greece, Hungary and Hong-Kong. Model fitting to each dataset provides site-specific estimates for vaccine efficacy against acquisition, and pneumococcal transmission parameters. According to this model, variable serotype replacement across sites can be explained through variable PCV7 efficacy, ranging from 40% in Norway to 10% in Hong-Kong. While the details of how this effect is achieved remain to be determined, here I report three factors negatively associated with the VE readout, including initial prevalence of serotype 19F, daily mean temperature, and the Gini index. The study warrants more attention on local modulators of vaccine performance and calls for predictive frameworks within and across populations.
format	article
author	Erida Gjini
author_facet	Erida Gjini
author_sort	Erida Gjini
title	Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7
title_short	Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7
title_full	Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7
title_fullStr	Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7
title_full_unstemmed	Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7
title_sort	geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-pcv7
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/7fcc7c9529e444bc8981afefce3020c6
work_keys_str_mv	AT eridagjini geographicvariationinpneumococcalvaccineefficacyestimatedfromdynamicmodelingofepidemiologicaldatapostpcv7
_version_	1718385034915741696

Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7

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