Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991

This is the story of a successful risk mitigation effort at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 that could easily have failed. The counterfactuals are the myriad of ways that the effort could have failed but didn’t. Forecasts for a large, VEI 6 eruption were the basis of 10, 20, 30 and, during the climactic erup...

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Autor principal:	Chris Newhall
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	mitigation Pinatubo eruption forecasting trust communication counterfactual Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/806f07a33f1246d1a3d6b7d89ab482ee
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:806f07a33f1246d1a3d6b7d89ab482ee2021-11-17T11:15:39ZVolcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 19912296-646310.3389/feart.2021.743477https://doaj.org/article/806f07a33f1246d1a3d6b7d89ab482ee2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.743477/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463This is the story of a successful risk mitigation effort at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 that could easily have failed. The counterfactuals are the myriad of ways that the effort could have failed but didn’t. Forecasts for a large, VEI 6 eruption were the basis of 10, 20, 30 and, during the climactic eruption, even 40 km radius evacuations. Let’s use the metaphor of a train headed for the destination of successful mitigation, but that could have easily have been derailed or slowed and shunted off to a siding. Among the possible nodes of derailment: capability and trust between responding institutions; external distractions, both natural and man-made; early alert; scientific judgment of whether, when, and how big an eruption will occur; stochastic or unpredictable factors that can make even the best scientific judgment moot; optimal balance between caution and decisive actions, by scientists and civil defense alike; and effective communication between all parties. Potential derailments are detailed at each of these nodes for Pinatubo.Chris NewhallFrontiers Media S.A.articlemitigationPinatuboeruption forecastingtrustcommunicationcounterfactualScienceQENFrontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	mitigation Pinatubo eruption forecasting trust communication counterfactual Science Q
spellingShingle	mitigation Pinatubo eruption forecasting trust communication counterfactual Science Q Chris Newhall Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
description	This is the story of a successful risk mitigation effort at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 that could easily have failed. The counterfactuals are the myriad of ways that the effort could have failed but didn’t. Forecasts for a large, VEI 6 eruption were the basis of 10, 20, 30 and, during the climactic eruption, even 40 km radius evacuations. Let’s use the metaphor of a train headed for the destination of successful mitigation, but that could have easily have been derailed or slowed and shunted off to a siding. Among the possible nodes of derailment: capability and trust between responding institutions; external distractions, both natural and man-made; early alert; scientific judgment of whether, when, and how big an eruption will occur; stochastic or unpredictable factors that can make even the best scientific judgment moot; optimal balance between caution and decisive actions, by scientists and civil defense alike; and effective communication between all parties. Potential derailments are detailed at each of these nodes for Pinatubo.
format	article
author	Chris Newhall
author_facet	Chris Newhall
author_sort	Chris Newhall
title	Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
title_short	Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
title_full	Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
title_fullStr	Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
title_full_unstemmed	Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
title_sort	volcanic risk mitigation that could have been derailed but wasn’t: pinatubo, philippines 1991
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/806f07a33f1246d1a3d6b7d89ab482ee
work_keys_str_mv	AT chrisnewhall volcanicriskmitigationthatcouldhavebeenderailedbutwasntpinatubophilippines1991
_version_	1718425620937965568

Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991

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