Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures

Although the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide...

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Autores principales:	Alexander Klug, Eva Herrmann, Sebastian Fischer, Reinhard Hoffmann, Yves Gramlich
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	shoulder arthroplasty reverse shoulder arthroplasty proximal humerus fracture hemiarthroplasty projections revision Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/81176d695ba64a848d47fbc9c76d1ae4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:81176d695ba64a848d47fbc9c76d1ae42021-11-11T17:44:37ZProjections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures10.3390/jcm102151232077-0383https://doaj.org/article/81176d695ba64a848d47fbc9c76d1ae42021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/21/5123https://doaj.org/toc/2077-0383Although the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide inpatient statistics of Germany (2010–2019) and population forecasts until 2040 were gathered. A Poisson and a negative binomial approach using monotone B-splines were modeled for all types of prostheses to project the annual number and incidence of primary and revision arthroplasty. Additionally, trends in main indicators were also gathered and expected changes were calculated. Overall, the number of primary shoulder replacements is set to increase significantly by 2040, reaching at least 37,000 (95% CI 32,000–44,000) procedures per year. This trend is mainly attributable to an about 10-fold increased use of fracture-related reverse shoulder arthroplasty in patients over 80 years of age, although the number of procedures in younger patients will also rise substantially. In contrast, hemiarthroplasties will significantly decrease. The number of revision procedures is projected to increase subsequently, although the revision burden is forecast to decline. Using these country-specific projection approaches, a massive increase of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasties is expected by 2040, mainly due to a rising number of fracture-related procedures. These growth rates are substantially higher than those from hip or knee arthroplasty. As these trends are similar in most Western countries, this draws attention to the international issue, of: if healthcare systems will be able to allocate human and financial resources adequately, and if future research and fracture-prevention programs may help to temper this rising burden in the upcoming decades.Alexander KlugEva HerrmannSebastian FischerReinhard HoffmannYves GramlichMDPI AGarticleshoulder arthroplastyreverse shoulder arthroplastyproximal humerus fracturehemiarthroplastyprojectionsrevisionMedicineRENJournal of Clinical Medicine, Vol 10, Iss 5123, p 5123 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	shoulder arthroplasty reverse shoulder arthroplasty proximal humerus fracture hemiarthroplasty projections revision Medicine R
spellingShingle	shoulder arthroplasty reverse shoulder arthroplasty proximal humerus fracture hemiarthroplasty projections revision Medicine R Alexander Klug Eva Herrmann Sebastian Fischer Reinhard Hoffmann Yves Gramlich Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures
description	Although the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide inpatient statistics of Germany (2010–2019) and population forecasts until 2040 were gathered. A Poisson and a negative binomial approach using monotone B-splines were modeled for all types of prostheses to project the annual number and incidence of primary and revision arthroplasty. Additionally, trends in main indicators were also gathered and expected changes were calculated. Overall, the number of primary shoulder replacements is set to increase significantly by 2040, reaching at least 37,000 (95% CI 32,000–44,000) procedures per year. This trend is mainly attributable to an about 10-fold increased use of fracture-related reverse shoulder arthroplasty in patients over 80 years of age, although the number of procedures in younger patients will also rise substantially. In contrast, hemiarthroplasties will significantly decrease. The number of revision procedures is projected to increase subsequently, although the revision burden is forecast to decline. Using these country-specific projection approaches, a massive increase of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasties is expected by 2040, mainly due to a rising number of fracture-related procedures. These growth rates are substantially higher than those from hip or knee arthroplasty. As these trends are similar in most Western countries, this draws attention to the international issue, of: if healthcare systems will be able to allocate human and financial resources adequately, and if future research and fracture-prevention programs may help to temper this rising burden in the upcoming decades.
format	article
author	Alexander Klug Eva Herrmann Sebastian Fischer Reinhard Hoffmann Yves Gramlich
author_facet	Alexander Klug Eva Herrmann Sebastian Fischer Reinhard Hoffmann Yves Gramlich
author_sort	Alexander Klug
title	Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures
title_short	Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures
title_full	Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures
title_fullStr	Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures
title_full_unstemmed	Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures
title_sort	projections of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasty until 2040: facing a massive rise in fracture-related procedures
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/81176d695ba64a848d47fbc9c76d1ae4
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Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures

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