Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

Abstract Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To qua...

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Autores principales:	Simon A. Rella, Yuliya A. Kulikova, Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis, Fyodor A. Kondrashov
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/814e16bc946f40178691be3c3befb410
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:814e16bc946f40178691be3c3befb4102021-12-02T16:06:43ZRates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains10.1038/s41598-021-95025-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/814e16bc946f40178691be3c3befb4102021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.Simon A. RellaYuliya A. KulikovaEmmanouil T. DermitzakisFyodor A. KondrashovNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Simon A. Rella Yuliya A. Kulikova Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis Fyodor A. Kondrashov Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
description	Abstract Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
format	article
author	Simon A. Rella Yuliya A. Kulikova Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis Fyodor A. Kondrashov
author_facet	Simon A. Rella Yuliya A. Kulikova Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis Fyodor A. Kondrashov
author_sort	Simon A. Rella
title	Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
title_short	Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
title_full	Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
title_fullStr	Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
title_full_unstemmed	Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
title_sort	rates of sars-cov-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/814e16bc946f40178691be3c3befb410
work_keys_str_mv	AT simonarella ratesofsarscov2transmissionandvaccinationimpactthefateofvaccineresistantstrains AT yuliyaakulikova ratesofsarscov2transmissionandvaccinationimpactthefateofvaccineresistantstrains AT emmanouiltdermitzakis ratesofsarscov2transmissionandvaccinationimpactthefateofvaccineresistantstrains AT fyodorakondrashov ratesofsarscov2transmissionandvaccinationimpactthefateofvaccineresistantstrains
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Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

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