Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.

Optimists hold positive a priori beliefs about the future. In Bayesian statistical theory, a priori beliefs can be overcome by experience. However, optimistic beliefs can at times appear surprisingly resistant to evidence, suggesting that optimism might also influence how new information is selected...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Aistis Stankevicius, Quentin J M Huys, Aditi Kalra, Peggy Seriès
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/814fdeca47ac44768e9ec6abf64c9ae9
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:814fdeca47ac44768e9ec6abf64c9ae9
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:814fdeca47ac44768e9ec6abf64c9ae92021-11-11T05:52:10ZOptimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1003605https://doaj.org/article/814fdeca47ac44768e9ec6abf64c9ae92014-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24853098/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358Optimists hold positive a priori beliefs about the future. In Bayesian statistical theory, a priori beliefs can be overcome by experience. However, optimistic beliefs can at times appear surprisingly resistant to evidence, suggesting that optimism might also influence how new information is selected and learned. Here, we use a novel Pavlovian conditioning task, embedded in a normative framework, to directly assess how trait optimism, as classically measured using self-report questionnaires, influences choices between visual targets, by learning about their association with reward progresses. We find that trait optimism relates to an a priori belief about the likelihood of rewards, but not losses, in our task. Critically, this positive belief behaves like a probabilistic prior, i.e. its influence reduces with increasing experience. Contrary to findings in the literature related to unrealistic optimism and self-beliefs, it does not appear to influence the iterative learning process directly.Aistis StankeviciusQuentin J M HuysAditi KalraPeggy SerièsPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 10, Iss 5, p e1003605 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Aistis Stankevicius Quentin J M Huys Aditi Kalra Peggy Seriès Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.
description	Optimists hold positive a priori beliefs about the future. In Bayesian statistical theory, a priori beliefs can be overcome by experience. However, optimistic beliefs can at times appear surprisingly resistant to evidence, suggesting that optimism might also influence how new information is selected and learned. Here, we use a novel Pavlovian conditioning task, embedded in a normative framework, to directly assess how trait optimism, as classically measured using self-report questionnaires, influences choices between visual targets, by learning about their association with reward progresses. We find that trait optimism relates to an a priori belief about the likelihood of rewards, but not losses, in our task. Critically, this positive belief behaves like a probabilistic prior, i.e. its influence reduces with increasing experience. Contrary to findings in the literature related to unrealistic optimism and self-beliefs, it does not appear to influence the iterative learning process directly.
format	article
author	Aistis Stankevicius Quentin J M Huys Aditi Kalra Peggy Seriès
author_facet	Aistis Stankevicius Quentin J M Huys Aditi Kalra Peggy Seriès
author_sort	Aistis Stankevicius
title	Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.
title_short	Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.
title_full	Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.
title_fullStr	Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.
title_full_unstemmed	Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.
title_sort	optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/814fdeca47ac44768e9ec6abf64c9ae9
work_keys_str_mv	AT aistisstankevicius optimismasapriorbeliefabouttheprobabilityoffuturereward AT quentinjmhuys optimismasapriorbeliefabouttheprobabilityoffuturereward AT aditikalra optimismasapriorbeliefabouttheprobabilityoffuturereward AT peggyseries optimismasapriorbeliefabouttheprobabilityoffuturereward
_version_	1718439509101641728

Optimism as a prior belief about the probability of future reward.

Ejemplares similares