Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2

The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time o...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Arūnas Bukantis, Gytis Valaika
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Vilnius Gediminas Technical University 2021
Materias:	air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Environmental engineering TA170-171
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e42021-11-11T14:02:43ZAccuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 21648-68971822-419910.3846/jeelm.2021.15580https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e42021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580https://doaj.org/toc/1648-6897https://doaj.org/toc/1822-4199The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation.Arūnas BukantisGytis ValaikaVilnius Gediminas Technical Universityarticleair temperatureatmospheric circulationclimate forecast systemenvironment monitoringprecipitations anomaliesaccuracy of forecastsEnvironmental engineeringTA170-171ENJournal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management, Vol 29, Iss 3, Pp 337-345 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Environmental engineering TA170-171
spellingShingle	air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Environmental engineering TA170-171 Arūnas Bukantis Gytis Valaika Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
description	The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation.
format	article
author	Arūnas Bukantis Gytis Valaika
author_facet	Arūnas Bukantis Gytis Valaika
author_sort	Arūnas Bukantis
title	Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
title_short	Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
title_full	Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
title_fullStr	Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
title_full_unstemmed	Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
title_sort	accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of lithuania using noaa’s climate forecast system version 2
publisher	Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/82999680a1b9448998a4fa1a21dfe3e4
work_keys_str_mv	AT arunasbukantis accuracyofmonthlyandseasonalforecastsgeneratedfortheterritoryoflithuaniausingnoaasclimateforecastsystemversion2 AT gytisvalaika accuracyofmonthlyandseasonalforecastsgeneratedfortheterritoryoflithuaniausingnoaasclimateforecastsystemversion2
_version_	1718439050902241280

Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2

Ejemplares similares