Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown

Abstract Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the...

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Autores principales:	A. S. Fokas, J. Cuevas-Maraver, P. G. Kevrekidis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/82b664a6c5cc4c86a437e60d2b6a72d6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:82b664a6c5cc4c86a437e60d2b6a72d62021-12-02T13:30:37ZEasing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown10.1038/s41598-021-82932-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/82b664a6c5cc4c86a437e60d2b6a72d62021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82932-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.A. S. FokasJ. Cuevas-MaraverP. G. KevrekidisNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q A. S. Fokas J. Cuevas-Maraver P. G. Kevrekidis Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
description	Abstract Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.
format	article
author	A. S. Fokas J. Cuevas-Maraver P. G. Kevrekidis
author_facet	A. S. Fokas J. Cuevas-Maraver P. G. Kevrekidis
author_sort	A. S. Fokas
title	Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
title_short	Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
title_full	Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
title_fullStr	Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
title_full_unstemmed	Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
title_sort	easing covid-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/82b664a6c5cc4c86a437e60d2b6a72d6
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Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown

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