Approaches to forecasing option volatility

The article investigates a new approach to the idea of volatility. In spite of the well-known assumption that option volatility in future will be exactly the same as today, the author puts forward a method, which links the change in volatility to change of only one parameter, i.e. the price of basic...

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Autor principal: A. V. Azatskiy
Formato: article
Lenguaje:RU
Publicado: Plekhanov Russian University of Economics 2018
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/833927450b614d74b00a4e571cd50236
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:833927450b614d74b00a4e571cd502362021-11-15T05:20:47ZApproaches to forecasing option volatility2413-28292587-925110.21686/2413-2829-2018-5-174-181https://doaj.org/article/833927450b614d74b00a4e571cd502362018-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/580https://doaj.org/toc/2413-2829https://doaj.org/toc/2587-9251The article investigates a new approach to the idea of volatility. In spite of the well-known assumption that option volatility in future will be exactly the same as today, the author puts forward a method, which links the change in volatility to change of only one parameter, i.e. the price of basic asset. The idea that the price of basic asset is a ‘guide’ for option volatility does not need any proof, as like terminal contracts options are estimated proceeding from their basic asset. This method can help estimate future volatility for one (or even more steps) ahead. Like any other forecast method it builds up the error as the number of steps in the future increases, however the simplicity of its use and low resource-intensiveness make it a worthy alternative to the method accepted now, which shows volatility while presenting prospects of the current option position. To forecast volatility for one step ahead we used the following basic statistic methods and economic models: the method of linear regression, Newton-Rafson method for finding option strikes for the set deltas, the method of spline-interpolation, the model of calculating ‘option smile’ Vanna-Volga.A. V. AzatskiyPlekhanov Russian University of Economicsarticle"volatility smile"vanna-volga methodiv forecastopting pricingvanilla optionsEconomics as a scienceHB71-74RUВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова, Vol 0, Iss 5, Pp 174-181 (2018)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language RU
topic "volatility smile"
vanna-volga method
iv forecast
opting pricing
vanilla options
Economics as a science
HB71-74
spellingShingle "volatility smile"
vanna-volga method
iv forecast
opting pricing
vanilla options
Economics as a science
HB71-74
A. V. Azatskiy
Approaches to forecasing option volatility
description The article investigates a new approach to the idea of volatility. In spite of the well-known assumption that option volatility in future will be exactly the same as today, the author puts forward a method, which links the change in volatility to change of only one parameter, i.e. the price of basic asset. The idea that the price of basic asset is a ‘guide’ for option volatility does not need any proof, as like terminal contracts options are estimated proceeding from their basic asset. This method can help estimate future volatility for one (or even more steps) ahead. Like any other forecast method it builds up the error as the number of steps in the future increases, however the simplicity of its use and low resource-intensiveness make it a worthy alternative to the method accepted now, which shows volatility while presenting prospects of the current option position. To forecast volatility for one step ahead we used the following basic statistic methods and economic models: the method of linear regression, Newton-Rafson method for finding option strikes for the set deltas, the method of spline-interpolation, the model of calculating ‘option smile’ Vanna-Volga.
format article
author A. V. Azatskiy
author_facet A. V. Azatskiy
author_sort A. V. Azatskiy
title Approaches to forecasing option volatility
title_short Approaches to forecasing option volatility
title_full Approaches to forecasing option volatility
title_fullStr Approaches to forecasing option volatility
title_full_unstemmed Approaches to forecasing option volatility
title_sort approaches to forecasing option volatility
publisher Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
publishDate 2018
url https://doaj.org/article/833927450b614d74b00a4e571cd50236
work_keys_str_mv AT avazatskiy approachestoforecasingoptionvolatility
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