Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Rob...

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Autores principales:	Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Robert Lempert, Raffaele Vardavas, Lawrence Baker, Jeanne Ringel, Carolyn M. Rutter, Jonathan Ozik, Nicholson Collier
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/83e5ed78b4eb4c96a1fb9236c589e118
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:83e5ed78b4eb4c96a1fb9236c589e1182021-11-04T07:42:10ZReopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/83e5ed78b4eb4c96a1fb9236c589e1182021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8547648/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test 78 alternative reopening strategies, using California as an example. This study uniquely considers a wide range of uncertainties and demonstrates that seemingly sensible reopening plans can lead to both unnecessary COVID-19 deaths and days of interventions. We find that plans using fixed COVID-19 case thresholds might be less effective than strategies with time-varying reopening thresholds. While we use California as an example, our results are particularly relevant for jurisdictions where vaccination roll-out has been slower. The approach used in this paper could also prove useful for other public health policy problems in which policymakers need to make robust decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.Pedro Nascimento de LimaRobert LempertRaffaele VardavasLawrence BakerJeanne RingelCarolyn M. RutterJonathan OzikNicholson CollierPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Pedro Nascimento de Lima Robert Lempert Raffaele Vardavas Lawrence Baker Jeanne Ringel Carolyn M. Rutter Jonathan Ozik Nicholson Collier Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies
description	The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test 78 alternative reopening strategies, using California as an example. This study uniquely considers a wide range of uncertainties and demonstrates that seemingly sensible reopening plans can lead to both unnecessary COVID-19 deaths and days of interventions. We find that plans using fixed COVID-19 case thresholds might be less effective than strategies with time-varying reopening thresholds. While we use California as an example, our results are particularly relevant for jurisdictions where vaccination roll-out has been slower. The approach used in this paper could also prove useful for other public health policy problems in which policymakers need to make robust decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.
format	article
author	Pedro Nascimento de Lima Robert Lempert Raffaele Vardavas Lawrence Baker Jeanne Ringel Carolyn M. Rutter Jonathan Ozik Nicholson Collier
author_facet	Pedro Nascimento de Lima Robert Lempert Raffaele Vardavas Lawrence Baker Jeanne Ringel Carolyn M. Rutter Jonathan Ozik Nicholson Collier
author_sort	Pedro Nascimento de Lima
title	Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies
title_short	Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies
title_full	Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies
title_fullStr	Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies
title_full_unstemmed	Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies
title_sort	reopening california: seeking robust, non-dominated covid-19 exit strategies
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/83e5ed78b4eb4c96a1fb9236c589e118
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Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies

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