Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study

Abstract A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association bet...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	R. F. Savaris, G. Pumi, J. Dalzochio, R. Kunst
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/83f5a711c2a54e0e822cb72ae71ad6ac
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:83f5a711c2a54e0e822cb72ae71ad6ac
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:83f5a711c2a54e0e822cb72ae71ad6ac2021-12-02T13:30:12ZStay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study10.1038/s41598-021-84092-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/83f5a711c2a54e0e822cb72ae71ad6ac2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84092-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between staying at home (%) and the reduction/increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in several regions in the world. In this ecological study, data from www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ , ourworldindata.org and covid.saude.gov.br were combined. Countries with > 100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥ 67 were included. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. The analysis was performed using linear regression with special attention to residual analysis. After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. Only 63 (1.6%) comparisons were significant. With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~ 98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.R. F. SavarisG. PumiJ. DalzochioR. KunstNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q R. F. Savaris G. Pumi J. Dalzochio R. Kunst Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
description	Abstract A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between staying at home (%) and the reduction/increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in several regions in the world. In this ecological study, data from www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ , ourworldindata.org and covid.saude.gov.br were combined. Countries with > 100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥ 67 were included. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. The analysis was performed using linear regression with special attention to residual analysis. After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. Only 63 (1.6%) comparisons were significant. With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~ 98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.
format	article
author	R. F. Savaris G. Pumi J. Dalzochio R. Kunst
author_facet	R. F. Savaris G. Pumi J. Dalzochio R. Kunst
author_sort	R. F. Savaris
title	Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
title_short	Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
title_full	Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
title_fullStr	Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
title_full_unstemmed	Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
title_sort	stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/83f5a711c2a54e0e822cb72ae71ad6ac
work_keys_str_mv	AT rfsavaris stayathomepolicyisacaseofexceptionfallacyaninternetbasedecologicalstudy AT gpumi stayathomepolicyisacaseofexceptionfallacyaninternetbasedecologicalstudy AT jdalzochio stayathomepolicyisacaseofexceptionfallacyaninternetbasedecologicalstudy AT rkunst stayathomepolicyisacaseofexceptionfallacyaninternetbasedecologicalstudy
_version_	1718392926266982400

Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study

Ejemplares similares