The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China

Abstract A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible—ex...

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Autores principales:	Xuying Lao, Li Luo, Zhao Lei, Ting Fang, Yi Chen, Yuhui Liu, Keqin Ding, Dongliang Zhang, Rong Wang, Zeyu Zhao, Jia Rui, Yuanzhao Zhu, Jingwen Xu, Yao Wang, Meng Yang, Bo Yi, Tianmu Chen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/844c6b0a3f61414ea19c68315cb5e6a0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:844c6b0a3f61414ea19c68315cb5e6a02021-12-02T14:29:03ZThe epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China10.1038/s41598-021-88473-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/844c6b0a3f61414ea19c68315cb5e6a02021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88473-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible—exposed—infectious—asymptomatic—recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. The information of each confirmed case and asymptomatic infection was collected from Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China. A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increasing trend. The proportion of elder people in the asymptomatic infections was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistically significant (Fisher’s Exact Test, P = 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (χ 2 = 0.052, P = 0.819) by Kruskal–Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (R eff ) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which turned out to be exceedingly effective in China.Xuying LaoLi LuoZhao LeiTing FangYi ChenYuhui LiuKeqin DingDongliang ZhangRong WangZeyu ZhaoJia RuiYuanzhao ZhuJingwen XuYao WangMeng YangBo YiTianmu ChenNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xuying Lao Li Luo Zhao Lei Ting Fang Yi Chen Yuhui Liu Keqin Ding Dongliang Zhang Rong Wang Zeyu Zhao Jia Rui Yuanzhao Zhu Jingwen Xu Yao Wang Meng Yang Bo Yi Tianmu Chen The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
description	Abstract A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible—exposed—infectious—asymptomatic—recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. The information of each confirmed case and asymptomatic infection was collected from Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China. A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increasing trend. The proportion of elder people in the asymptomatic infections was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistically significant (Fisher’s Exact Test, P = 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (χ 2 = 0.052, P = 0.819) by Kruskal–Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (R eff ) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which turned out to be exceedingly effective in China.
format	article
author	Xuying Lao Li Luo Zhao Lei Ting Fang Yi Chen Yuhui Liu Keqin Ding Dongliang Zhang Rong Wang Zeyu Zhao Jia Rui Yuanzhao Zhu Jingwen Xu Yao Wang Meng Yang Bo Yi Tianmu Chen
author_facet	Xuying Lao Li Luo Zhao Lei Ting Fang Yi Chen Yuhui Liu Keqin Ding Dongliang Zhang Rong Wang Zeyu Zhao Jia Rui Yuanzhao Zhu Jingwen Xu Yao Wang Meng Yang Bo Yi Tianmu Chen
author_sort	Xuying Lao
title	The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
title_short	The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
title_full	The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
title_fullStr	The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
title_full_unstemmed	The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
title_sort	epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in ningbo city, zhejiang province, china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/844c6b0a3f61414ea19c68315cb5e6a0
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The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China

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