Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019

Abstract Floods can be devastating in densely populated regions along rivers, so attaining a longer forecast lead time with high accuracy is essential for protecting people and property. Although many techniques are used to forecast floods, sufficient validation of the use of a forecast system for o...

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Autores principales:	Wenchao Ma, Yuta Ishitsuka, Akira Takeshima, Kenshi Hibino, Dai Yamazaki, Kosuke Yamamoto, Misako Kachi, Riko Oki, Taikan Oki, Kei Yoshimura
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/847d87328979451e9c6539f724ba397e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:847d87328979451e9c6539f724ba397e2021-12-02T17:15:22ZApplicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 201910.1038/s41598-021-89522-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/847d87328979451e9c6539f724ba397e2021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89522-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Floods can be devastating in densely populated regions along rivers, so attaining a longer forecast lead time with high accuracy is essential for protecting people and property. Although many techniques are used to forecast floods, sufficient validation of the use of a forecast system for operational alert purposes is lacking. In this study, we validated the flooding locations and times of dike breaking that had occurred during Typhoon Hagibis, which caused severe flooding in Japan in 2019. To achieve the goal of the study, we combined a hydrodynamic model with statistical analysis under forcing by a 39-h prediction of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Meso-scale model Grid Point Value (MSM-GPV) and obtained dike-break times for all flooded locations for validation. The results showed that this method was accurate in predicting floods at 130 locations, approximately 91.6% of the total of 142 flooded locations, with a lead time of approximately 32.75 h. In terms of precision, these successfully predicted locations accounted for 24.0% of the total of 542 locations under a flood warning, and on average, the predicted flood time was approximately 8.53 h earlier than a given dike-break time. More warnings were issued for major rivers with severe flooding, indicating that the system is sensitive to extreme flood events and can issue warnings for rivers subject to high risk of flooding.Wenchao MaYuta IshitsukaAkira TakeshimaKenshi HibinoDai YamazakiKosuke YamamotoMisako KachiRiko OkiTaikan OkiKei YoshimuraNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Wenchao Ma Yuta Ishitsuka Akira Takeshima Kenshi Hibino Dai Yamazaki Kosuke Yamamoto Misako Kachi Riko Oki Taikan Oki Kei Yoshimura Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019
description	Abstract Floods can be devastating in densely populated regions along rivers, so attaining a longer forecast lead time with high accuracy is essential for protecting people and property. Although many techniques are used to forecast floods, sufficient validation of the use of a forecast system for operational alert purposes is lacking. In this study, we validated the flooding locations and times of dike breaking that had occurred during Typhoon Hagibis, which caused severe flooding in Japan in 2019. To achieve the goal of the study, we combined a hydrodynamic model with statistical analysis under forcing by a 39-h prediction of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Meso-scale model Grid Point Value (MSM-GPV) and obtained dike-break times for all flooded locations for validation. The results showed that this method was accurate in predicting floods at 130 locations, approximately 91.6% of the total of 142 flooded locations, with a lead time of approximately 32.75 h. In terms of precision, these successfully predicted locations accounted for 24.0% of the total of 542 locations under a flood warning, and on average, the predicted flood time was approximately 8.53 h earlier than a given dike-break time. More warnings were issued for major rivers with severe flooding, indicating that the system is sensitive to extreme flood events and can issue warnings for rivers subject to high risk of flooding.
format	article
author	Wenchao Ma Yuta Ishitsuka Akira Takeshima Kenshi Hibino Dai Yamazaki Kosuke Yamamoto Misako Kachi Riko Oki Taikan Oki Kei Yoshimura
author_facet	Wenchao Ma Yuta Ishitsuka Akira Takeshima Kenshi Hibino Dai Yamazaki Kosuke Yamamoto Misako Kachi Riko Oki Taikan Oki Kei Yoshimura
author_sort	Wenchao Ma
title	Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019
title_short	Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019
title_full	Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019
title_fullStr	Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019
title_full_unstemmed	Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019
title_sort	applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for typhoon hagibis 2019
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/847d87328979451e9c6539f724ba397e
work_keys_str_mv	AT wenchaoma applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT yutaishitsuka applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT akiratakeshima applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT kenshihibino applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT daiyamazaki applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT kosukeyamamoto applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT misakokachi applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT rikooki applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT taikanoki applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019 AT keiyoshimura applicabilityofanationwidefloodforecastingsystemfortyphoonhagibis2019
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Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019

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