Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract The complexities involved in modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 has been a roadblock in achieving predictability in the spread and containment of the disease. In addition to understanding the modes of transmission, the effectiveness of the mitigation methods also needs to be bu...

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Autores principales: Ayan Paul, Jayanta Kumar Bhattacharjee, Akshay Pal, Sagar Chakraborty
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Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/8495acbac6b1478b9e49fd38b8799911
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:8495acbac6b1478b9e49fd38b87999112021-12-02T17:27:19ZEmergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-1910.1038/s41598-021-98302-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8495acbac6b1478b9e49fd38b87999112021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98302-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The complexities involved in modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 has been a roadblock in achieving predictability in the spread and containment of the disease. In addition to understanding the modes of transmission, the effectiveness of the mitigation methods also needs to be built into any effective model for making such predictions. We show that such complexities can be circumvented by appealing to scaling principles which lead to the emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of the disease. The ensuing data collapse renders the transmission dynamics largely independent of geopolitical variations, the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies, population demographics, etc. We propose a simple two-parameter model—the Blue Sky model—and show that one class of transmission dynamics can be explained by a solution that lives at the edge of a blue sky bifurcation. In addition, the data collapse leads to an enhanced degree of predictability in the disease spread for several geographical scales which can also be realized in a model-independent manner as we show using a deep neural network. The methodology adopted in this work can potentially be applied to the transmission of other infectious diseases and new universality classes may be found. The predictability in transmission dynamics and the simplicity of our methodology can help in building policies for exit strategies and mitigation methods during a pandemic.Ayan PaulJayanta Kumar BhattacharjeeAkshay PalSagar ChakrabortyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Ayan Paul
Jayanta Kumar Bhattacharjee
Akshay Pal
Sagar Chakraborty
Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
description Abstract The complexities involved in modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 has been a roadblock in achieving predictability in the spread and containment of the disease. In addition to understanding the modes of transmission, the effectiveness of the mitigation methods also needs to be built into any effective model for making such predictions. We show that such complexities can be circumvented by appealing to scaling principles which lead to the emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of the disease. The ensuing data collapse renders the transmission dynamics largely independent of geopolitical variations, the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies, population demographics, etc. We propose a simple two-parameter model—the Blue Sky model—and show that one class of transmission dynamics can be explained by a solution that lives at the edge of a blue sky bifurcation. In addition, the data collapse leads to an enhanced degree of predictability in the disease spread for several geographical scales which can also be realized in a model-independent manner as we show using a deep neural network. The methodology adopted in this work can potentially be applied to the transmission of other infectious diseases and new universality classes may be found. The predictability in transmission dynamics and the simplicity of our methodology can help in building policies for exit strategies and mitigation methods during a pandemic.
format article
author Ayan Paul
Jayanta Kumar Bhattacharjee
Akshay Pal
Sagar Chakraborty
author_facet Ayan Paul
Jayanta Kumar Bhattacharjee
Akshay Pal
Sagar Chakraborty
author_sort Ayan Paul
title Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
title_short Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
title_full Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
title_fullStr Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
title_sort emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of covid-19
publisher Nature Portfolio
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/8495acbac6b1478b9e49fd38b8799911
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AT akshaypal emergenceofuniversalityinthetransmissiondynamicsofcovid19
AT sagarchakraborty emergenceofuniversalityinthetransmissiondynamicsofcovid19
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