The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk

Abstract In the early stages of an outbreak, the term ‘pandemic’ can be used to communicate about infectious disease risk, particularly by those who wish to encourage a large-scale public health response. However, the term lacks a widely accepted quantitative definition. We show that, under alternat...

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Autores principales:	Benjamin J. Singer, Robin N. Thompson, Michael B. Bonsall
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/85b84d4f6f1f4455bbdc12a6fbe65fdc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:85b84d4f6f1f4455bbdc12a6fbe65fdc2021-12-02T13:57:37ZThe effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk10.1038/s41598-021-81814-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/85b84d4f6f1f4455bbdc12a6fbe65fdc2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81814-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract In the early stages of an outbreak, the term ‘pandemic’ can be used to communicate about infectious disease risk, particularly by those who wish to encourage a large-scale public health response. However, the term lacks a widely accepted quantitative definition. We show that, under alternate quantitative definitions of ‘pandemic’, an epidemiological metapopulation model produces different estimates of the probability of a pandemic. Critically, we show that using different definitions alters the projected effects of key parameters—such as inter-regional travel rates, degree of pre-existing immunity, and heterogeneity in transmission rates between regions—on the risk of a pandemic. Our analysis provides a foundation for understanding the scientific importance of precise language when discussing pandemic risk, illustrating how alternative definitions affect the conclusions of modelling studies. This serves to highlight that those working on pandemic preparedness must remain alert to the variability in the use of the term ‘pandemic’, and provide specific quantitative definitions when undertaking one of the types of analysis that we show to be sensitive to the pandemic definition.Benjamin J. SingerRobin N. ThompsonMichael B. BonsallNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Benjamin J. Singer Robin N. Thompson Michael B. Bonsall The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk
description	Abstract In the early stages of an outbreak, the term ‘pandemic’ can be used to communicate about infectious disease risk, particularly by those who wish to encourage a large-scale public health response. However, the term lacks a widely accepted quantitative definition. We show that, under alternate quantitative definitions of ‘pandemic’, an epidemiological metapopulation model produces different estimates of the probability of a pandemic. Critically, we show that using different definitions alters the projected effects of key parameters—such as inter-regional travel rates, degree of pre-existing immunity, and heterogeneity in transmission rates between regions—on the risk of a pandemic. Our analysis provides a foundation for understanding the scientific importance of precise language when discussing pandemic risk, illustrating how alternative definitions affect the conclusions of modelling studies. This serves to highlight that those working on pandemic preparedness must remain alert to the variability in the use of the term ‘pandemic’, and provide specific quantitative definitions when undertaking one of the types of analysis that we show to be sensitive to the pandemic definition.
format	article
author	Benjamin J. Singer Robin N. Thompson Michael B. Bonsall
author_facet	Benjamin J. Singer Robin N. Thompson Michael B. Bonsall
author_sort	Benjamin J. Singer
title	The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk
title_short	The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk
title_full	The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk
title_fullStr	The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk
title_full_unstemmed	The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk
title_sort	effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/85b84d4f6f1f4455bbdc12a6fbe65fdc
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The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk

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