Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions

The paper aims to quantify solar and anthropogenic influences on climate change, and to make some tentative predictions for the next hundred years. By means of double regression, we evaluate linear combinations of the logarithm of the carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa index as a pr...

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Autor principal:	Frank Stefani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate change solar cycle forecast Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/85faf3c1b46149dd93678cf5fd7daa6b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:85faf3c1b46149dd93678cf5fd7daa6b2021-11-25T17:15:22ZSolar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions10.3390/cli91101632225-1154https://doaj.org/article/85faf3c1b46149dd93678cf5fd7daa6b2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/11/163https://doaj.org/toc/2225-1154The paper aims to quantify solar and anthropogenic influences on climate change, and to make some tentative predictions for the next hundred years. By means of double regression, we evaluate linear combinations of the logarithm of the carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa index as a proxy for solar activity. Thereby, we reproduce the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since the middle of the 19th century with an adjusted <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi>R</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> value of around 87 percent for a climate sensitivity (of TCR type) in the range of 0.6 K until 1.6 K per doubling of CO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>. The solution of the double regression is quite sensitive: when including data from the last decade, the simultaneous occurrence of a strong El Niño and of low aa values leads to a preponderance of solutions with relatively high climate sensitivities around 1.6 K. If these later data are excluded, the regression delivers a significantly higher weight of the aa index and, correspondingly, a lower climate sensitivity going down to 0.6 K. The plausibility of such low values is discussed in view of recent experimental and satellite-borne measurements. We argue that a further decade of data collection will be needed to allow for a reliable distinction between low and high sensitivity values. In the second part, which builds on recent ideas about a quasi-deterministic planetary synchronization of the solar dynamo, we make a first attempt to predict the aa index and the resulting temperature anomaly for various typical CO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> scenarios. Even for the highest climate sensitivities, and an unabated linear CO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> increase, we predict only a mild additional temperature rise of around 1 K until the end of the century, while for the lower values an imminent temperature drop in the near future, followed by a rather flat temperature curve, is prognosticated.Frank StefaniMDPI AGarticleclimate changesolar cycleforecastScienceQENClimate, Vol 9, Iss 163, p 163 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change solar cycle forecast Science Q
spellingShingle	climate change solar cycle forecast Science Q Frank Stefani Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions
description	The paper aims to quantify solar and anthropogenic influences on climate change, and to make some tentative predictions for the next hundred years. By means of double regression, we evaluate linear combinations of the logarithm of the carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa index as a proxy for solar activity. Thereby, we reproduce the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since the middle of the 19th century with an adjusted <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi>R</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> value of around 87 percent for a climate sensitivity (of TCR type) in the range of 0.6 K until 1.6 K per doubling of CO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>. The solution of the double regression is quite sensitive: when including data from the last decade, the simultaneous occurrence of a strong El Niño and of low aa values leads to a preponderance of solutions with relatively high climate sensitivities around 1.6 K. If these later data are excluded, the regression delivers a significantly higher weight of the aa index and, correspondingly, a lower climate sensitivity going down to 0.6 K. The plausibility of such low values is discussed in view of recent experimental and satellite-borne measurements. We argue that a further decade of data collection will be needed to allow for a reliable distinction between low and high sensitivity values. In the second part, which builds on recent ideas about a quasi-deterministic planetary synchronization of the solar dynamo, we make a first attempt to predict the aa index and the resulting temperature anomaly for various typical CO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> scenarios. Even for the highest climate sensitivities, and an unabated linear CO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> increase, we predict only a mild additional temperature rise of around 1 K until the end of the century, while for the lower values an imminent temperature drop in the near future, followed by a rather flat temperature curve, is prognosticated.
format	article
author	Frank Stefani
author_facet	Frank Stefani
author_sort	Frank Stefani
title	Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions
title_short	Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions
title_full	Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions
title_fullStr	Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions
title_full_unstemmed	Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions
title_sort	solar and anthropogenic influences on climate: regression analysis and tentative predictions
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/85faf3c1b46149dd93678cf5fd7daa6b
work_keys_str_mv	AT frankstefani solarandanthropogenicinfluencesonclimateregressionanalysisandtentativepredictions
_version_	1718412600631361536

Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions

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