Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario

The COVID-19 outbreak has generated, in addition to the dramatic sanitary consequences, severe psychological repercussions for the populations affected by the pandemic. Simultaneously, these consequences can have related effects on the spread of the virus. Pandemic fatigue occurs when stress rises b...

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Autores principales:	Luca Meacci, Mario Primicerio
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	COVID-19 virus spreading Pandemic fatigue Mathematical modelling Ordinary differential equations Numerical simulations Italy Physics QC1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/86bc4fd8d04c4319a885da1ea5782848
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:86bc4fd8d04c4319a885da1ea57828482021-11-24T04:28:56ZPandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario2211-379710.1016/j.rinp.2021.104895https://doaj.org/article/86bc4fd8d04c4319a885da1ea57828482021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379721009311https://doaj.org/toc/2211-3797The COVID-19 outbreak has generated, in addition to the dramatic sanitary consequences, severe psychological repercussions for the populations affected by the pandemic. Simultaneously, these consequences can have related effects on the spread of the virus. Pandemic fatigue occurs when stress rises beyond a threshold, leading a person to feel demotivated to follow recommended behaviours to protect themselves and others. In the present paper, we introduce a new susceptible–infected–quarantined–recovered-dead (SIQRD) model in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE). The model considers the countermeasures taken by sanitary authorities and the effect of pandemic fatigue. The latter can be mitigated by fear of the disease’s consequences modelled with the death rate in mind. The mathematical well-posedness of the model is proved. We show the numerical results to be consistent with the transmission dynamics data characterising the epidemic of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy in 2020. We provide a measure of the possible pandemic fatigue impact. The model can be used to evaluate the public health interventions and prevent with specific actions the possible damages resulting from the social phenomenon of relaxation concerning the observance of the preventive rules imposed.Luca MeacciMario PrimicerioElsevierarticleCOVID-19 virus spreadingPandemic fatigueMathematical modellingOrdinary differential equationsNumerical simulationsItalyPhysicsQC1-999ENResults in Physics, Vol 31, Iss , Pp 104895- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	COVID-19 virus spreading Pandemic fatigue Mathematical modelling Ordinary differential equations Numerical simulations Italy Physics QC1-999
spellingShingle	COVID-19 virus spreading Pandemic fatigue Mathematical modelling Ordinary differential equations Numerical simulations Italy Physics QC1-999 Luca Meacci Mario Primicerio Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario
description	The COVID-19 outbreak has generated, in addition to the dramatic sanitary consequences, severe psychological repercussions for the populations affected by the pandemic. Simultaneously, these consequences can have related effects on the spread of the virus. Pandemic fatigue occurs when stress rises beyond a threshold, leading a person to feel demotivated to follow recommended behaviours to protect themselves and others. In the present paper, we introduce a new susceptible–infected–quarantined–recovered-dead (SIQRD) model in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE). The model considers the countermeasures taken by sanitary authorities and the effect of pandemic fatigue. The latter can be mitigated by fear of the disease’s consequences modelled with the death rate in mind. The mathematical well-posedness of the model is proved. We show the numerical results to be consistent with the transmission dynamics data characterising the epidemic of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy in 2020. We provide a measure of the possible pandemic fatigue impact. The model can be used to evaluate the public health interventions and prevent with specific actions the possible damages resulting from the social phenomenon of relaxation concerning the observance of the preventive rules imposed.
format	article
author	Luca Meacci Mario Primicerio
author_facet	Luca Meacci Mario Primicerio
author_sort	Luca Meacci
title	Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario
title_short	Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario
title_full	Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario
title_fullStr	Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario
title_full_unstemmed	Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario
title_sort	pandemic fatigue impact on covid-19 spread: a mathematical modelling answer to the italian scenario
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/86bc4fd8d04c4319a885da1ea5782848
work_keys_str_mv	AT lucameacci pandemicfatigueimpactoncovid19spreadamathematicalmodellinganswertotheitalianscenario AT marioprimicerio pandemicfatigueimpactoncovid19spreadamathematicalmodellinganswertotheitalianscenario
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Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario

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