A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning

Abstract Background Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotion...

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Autores principales:	Hamid Sharif Nia, Ozkan Gorgulu, Navaz Naghavi, Erika Sivarajan Froelicher, Fatemeh Khoshnavay Fomani, Amir Hossein Goudarzian, Saeed Pahlevan Sharif, Roghiyeh Pourkia, Ali Akbar Haghdoost
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Weather Acute myocardial infarction Time series Iran Diseases of the circulatory (Cardiovascular) system RC666-701
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/86f7fa4c6ae84cd69cf02ea2d0c8d904
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:86f7fa4c6ae84cd69cf02ea2d0c8d9042021-11-28T12:05:21ZA time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning10.1186/s12872-021-02372-01471-2261https://doaj.org/article/86f7fa4c6ae84cd69cf02ea2d0c8d9042021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12872-021-02372-0https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2261Abstract Background Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011–2018. Methods In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model. Results It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI’s were enrolled. Average temperate (°C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI’s (β = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (β = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI’s (P > 0.05). Conclusion Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.Hamid Sharif NiaOzkan GorguluNavaz NaghaviErika Sivarajan FroelicherFatemeh Khoshnavay FomaniAmir Hossein GoudarzianSaeed Pahlevan SharifRoghiyeh PourkiaAli Akbar HaghdoostBMCarticleWeatherAcute myocardial infarctionTime seriesIranDiseases of the circulatory (Cardiovascular) systemRC666-701ENBMC Cardiovascular Disorders, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Weather Acute myocardial infarction Time series Iran Diseases of the circulatory (Cardiovascular) system RC666-701
spellingShingle	Weather Acute myocardial infarction Time series Iran Diseases of the circulatory (Cardiovascular) system RC666-701 Hamid Sharif Nia Ozkan Gorgulu Navaz Naghavi Erika Sivarajan Froelicher Fatemeh Khoshnavay Fomani Amir Hossein Goudarzian Saeed Pahlevan Sharif Roghiyeh Pourkia Ali Akbar Haghdoost A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning
description	Abstract Background Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011–2018. Methods In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model. Results It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI’s were enrolled. Average temperate (°C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI’s (β = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (β = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI’s (P > 0.05). Conclusion Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.
format	article
author	Hamid Sharif Nia Ozkan Gorgulu Navaz Naghavi Erika Sivarajan Froelicher Fatemeh Khoshnavay Fomani Amir Hossein Goudarzian Saeed Pahlevan Sharif Roghiyeh Pourkia Ali Akbar Haghdoost
author_facet	Hamid Sharif Nia Ozkan Gorgulu Navaz Naghavi Erika Sivarajan Froelicher Fatemeh Khoshnavay Fomani Amir Hossein Goudarzian Saeed Pahlevan Sharif Roghiyeh Pourkia Ali Akbar Haghdoost
author_sort	Hamid Sharif Nia
title	A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning
title_short	A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning
title_full	A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning
title_fullStr	A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning
title_full_unstemmed	A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning
title_sort	time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/86f7fa4c6ae84cd69cf02ea2d0c8d904
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A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning

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