The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5

Abstract It is still unclear whether a hiatus period arises due to a vertical redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) without changing ocean heat uptake (OHU), or whether the increasing radiative forcing is associated with an increase in OHU when global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise stalls...

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Autor principal:	Sybren Drijfhout
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/878efc1b74db4162bf1eb8067ef6dc53
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:878efc1b74db4162bf1eb8067ef6dc532021-12-02T15:08:25ZThe relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP510.1038/s41598-018-25342-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/878efc1b74db4162bf1eb8067ef6dc532018-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-25342-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract It is still unclear whether a hiatus period arises due to a vertical redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) without changing ocean heat uptake (OHU), or whether the increasing radiative forcing is associated with an increase in OHU when global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise stalls. By isolating natural variability from forced trends and performing a more precise lead-lag analysis, we show that in climate models TOA radiation and OHU do anti-correlate with natural variations in GMST, when GMST leads or when they coincide, but the correlation changes sign when OHU leads. Surface latent and sensible heat fluxes always force GMST-variations, whilst net surface longwave and solar radiation fluxes have a damping effect, implying that natural GMST-variations are caused by oceanic heat redistribution. In the models an important trigger for a hiatus period on decadal timescales is increased reflection of solar radiation, by increased sea-ice cover over deep-water formation areas. On inter-annual timescales, reflection of solar radiation in the tropics by increased cloud cover associated with La Niña is most important and the subsequent reduction in latent heat release becomes the dominant cause for a hiatus.Sybren DrijfhoutNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sybren Drijfhout The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5
description	Abstract It is still unclear whether a hiatus period arises due to a vertical redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) without changing ocean heat uptake (OHU), or whether the increasing radiative forcing is associated with an increase in OHU when global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise stalls. By isolating natural variability from forced trends and performing a more precise lead-lag analysis, we show that in climate models TOA radiation and OHU do anti-correlate with natural variations in GMST, when GMST leads or when they coincide, but the correlation changes sign when OHU leads. Surface latent and sensible heat fluxes always force GMST-variations, whilst net surface longwave and solar radiation fluxes have a damping effect, implying that natural GMST-variations are caused by oceanic heat redistribution. In the models an important trigger for a hiatus period on decadal timescales is increased reflection of solar radiation, by increased sea-ice cover over deep-water formation areas. On inter-annual timescales, reflection of solar radiation in the tropics by increased cloud cover associated with La Niña is most important and the subsequent reduction in latent heat release becomes the dominant cause for a hiatus.
format	article
author	Sybren Drijfhout
author_facet	Sybren Drijfhout
author_sort	Sybren Drijfhout
title	The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5
title_short	The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5
title_full	The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5
title_fullStr	The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5
title_full_unstemmed	The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5
title_sort	relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in cmip5
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/878efc1b74db4162bf1eb8067ef6dc53
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_version_	1718388131839868928

The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5

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