SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria

Introduction: The discrimination and calibration accuracy of prediction models tends to become poor over time. The performance of predictive models should be reevaluated periodically. The aim of this study was to reassess the discrimination of the six commonly used models for predicting 28-day morta...

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Autores principales:	Youfeng Zhu, Rui Zhang, Xiaoling Ye, Houqiang Liu, Jianrui Wei
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2022
Materias:	Sepsis 3.0 Mortality SIRS SOFA OASIS LODS Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/87bd39a0ba3947288dffcc410e29d46d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:87bd39a0ba3947288dffcc410e29d46d2021-12-02T04:59:44ZSAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria1201-971210.1016/j.ijid.2021.11.015https://doaj.org/article/87bd39a0ba3947288dffcc410e29d46d2022-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971221008638https://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712Introduction: The discrimination and calibration accuracy of prediction models tends to become poor over time. The performance of predictive models should be reevaluated periodically. The aim of this study was to reassess the discrimination of the six commonly used models for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis based on the Sepsis 3.0 criteria. Methods: Patient data were extracted from the fourth edition of the Medical Information Mart for Critical Care (MIMIC IV) database. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and III (SAPS III) scores were calculated and collected. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of the models using non-parametric Wilcoxon statistics. The Delong method was used to perform pairwise comparisons of the AUROCs of the models. Multiple subgroup analyses for age, body mass index, and sex were performed with regard to the 28-day mortality prediction of the models. Results: A total of 12 691 patients were included. The mean age of the patients was 65.97 ± 15.77 years; 7673 patients (60.50%) were male. The mean SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, SAPS II, LODS, and SAPS III scores were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III (AUROC 0.812, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.802–0.822) and LODS (AUROC 0.804, 95% CI 0.743–0.765) models was superior to that of the SIRS (AUROC 0.575, 95% CI 0.562–0.589), SOFA (AUROC 0.612, 95% CI 0.598–0.626), OASIS (AUROC 0.753, 95% CI 0.742–0.764), and SAPS II (AUROC 0.754, 95% CI 0.743–0.765) models. The Youden index of the SAPS III model was 0.484, which was the highest among the models. Subgroup analyses showed similar results to the overall results. Conclusions: The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III and LODS models was superior to that of the SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, and SAPS II models. The SAPS III model showed the best discrimination capacity for 28-day mortality compared with the other models.Youfeng ZhuRui ZhangXiaoling YeHouqiang LiuJianrui WeiElsevierarticleSepsis 3.0MortalitySIRSSOFAOASISLODSInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol 114, Iss , Pp 135-141 (2022)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Sepsis 3.0 Mortality SIRS SOFA OASIS LODS Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	Sepsis 3.0 Mortality SIRS SOFA OASIS LODS Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Youfeng Zhu Rui Zhang Xiaoling Ye Houqiang Liu Jianrui Wei SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria
description	Introduction: The discrimination and calibration accuracy of prediction models tends to become poor over time. The performance of predictive models should be reevaluated periodically. The aim of this study was to reassess the discrimination of the six commonly used models for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis based on the Sepsis 3.0 criteria. Methods: Patient data were extracted from the fourth edition of the Medical Information Mart for Critical Care (MIMIC IV) database. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and III (SAPS III) scores were calculated and collected. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of the models using non-parametric Wilcoxon statistics. The Delong method was used to perform pairwise comparisons of the AUROCs of the models. Multiple subgroup analyses for age, body mass index, and sex were performed with regard to the 28-day mortality prediction of the models. Results: A total of 12 691 patients were included. The mean age of the patients was 65.97 ± 15.77 years; 7673 patients (60.50%) were male. The mean SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, SAPS II, LODS, and SAPS III scores were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III (AUROC 0.812, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.802–0.822) and LODS (AUROC 0.804, 95% CI 0.743–0.765) models was superior to that of the SIRS (AUROC 0.575, 95% CI 0.562–0.589), SOFA (AUROC 0.612, 95% CI 0.598–0.626), OASIS (AUROC 0.753, 95% CI 0.742–0.764), and SAPS II (AUROC 0.754, 95% CI 0.743–0.765) models. The Youden index of the SAPS III model was 0.484, which was the highest among the models. Subgroup analyses showed similar results to the overall results. Conclusions: The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III and LODS models was superior to that of the SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, and SAPS II models. The SAPS III model showed the best discrimination capacity for 28-day mortality compared with the other models.
format	article
author	Youfeng Zhu Rui Zhang Xiaoling Ye Houqiang Liu Jianrui Wei
author_facet	Youfeng Zhu Rui Zhang Xiaoling Ye Houqiang Liu Jianrui Wei
author_sort	Youfeng Zhu
title	SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria
title_short	SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria
title_full	SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria
title_fullStr	SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria
title_full_unstemmed	SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria
title_sort	saps iii is superior to sofa for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on sepsis 3.0 criteria
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2022
url	https://doaj.org/article/87bd39a0ba3947288dffcc410e29d46d
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SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria

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