Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance

The article provides a comparative analysis of the financial sector of Russia and other countries in the structure of the global economy; international comparisons are made over 30 years in terms of financial depth, including monetization, “saturation” with loans and securities, inflation, and inter...

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Autor principal: Ya. M. Mirkin
Formato: article
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RU
Publicado: Ассоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”) 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/87d1078374b1486fb4a817e40dcf6b33
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:87d1078374b1486fb4a817e40dcf6b332021-11-07T14:45:05ZFinancial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance2542-02402587-932410.23932/2542-0240-2021-14-5-6https://doaj.org/article/87d1078374b1486fb4a817e40dcf6b332021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/857https://doaj.org/toc/2542-0240https://doaj.org/toc/2587-9324The article provides a comparative analysis of the financial sector of Russia and other countries in the structure of the global economy; international comparisons are made over 30 years in terms of financial depth, including monetization, “saturation” with loans and securities, inflation, and interest rate. The inadequacy of the size of the financial sector to the size of the Russian economy is shown, the extremely high volatility of financial variables is analyzed (using the example of the exchange rate and changes in the institutional network (banks and non-bank financial institutions)). The model of the financial sector is revealed (excessive role of the state, overconcentration in the markets and among financial institutions, oligopolization, “monetary desertification” of regions, excessive administrative costs, focus on capital export). Shown is the “pro-crisis” nature of the financial sector in Russia (1– 2 crises in 10–15 years). The complete correspondence of the parameters of the financial sector of Russia to other developing economies is demonstrated (the fourth – seventh dozen countries in terms of financial depth). It is shown that the parameters of financial development, as a rule, are worse than the groups of countries with lower middle income (according to the international classification). The analysis of the Russian economic model made it possible to show the cause-and-effect relationships between it and the financial sector model, their interdependence. Four scenarios of the economic future (“besieged fortress”, “frozen economy”, “Spanish”, “growth economy”) are given, with estimates of their probability, and on this basis the corresponding scenarios for the future development of the Russian financial sector. The scenario of the “growth economy” based on the change in the model of the economy in Russia, the policy of “financial afterburner” and the formation of a new model of the financial sector in Russia is more fully disclosed.Ya. M. MirkinАссоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”)articlecentral bankdomestic crediteconomic modelexchange ratefinancial developmentfinancial sectorinflationinterest ratepoliticsscenarios of economic futurevolatilityInternational relationsJZ2-6530ENRUКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право, Vol 14, Iss 5, Pp 119-142 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
RU
topic central bank
domestic credit
economic model
exchange rate
financial development
financial sector
inflation
interest rate
politics
scenarios of economic future
volatility
International relations
JZ2-6530
spellingShingle central bank
domestic credit
economic model
exchange rate
financial development
financial sector
inflation
interest rate
politics
scenarios of economic future
volatility
International relations
JZ2-6530
Ya. M. Mirkin
Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance
description The article provides a comparative analysis of the financial sector of Russia and other countries in the structure of the global economy; international comparisons are made over 30 years in terms of financial depth, including monetization, “saturation” with loans and securities, inflation, and interest rate. The inadequacy of the size of the financial sector to the size of the Russian economy is shown, the extremely high volatility of financial variables is analyzed (using the example of the exchange rate and changes in the institutional network (banks and non-bank financial institutions)). The model of the financial sector is revealed (excessive role of the state, overconcentration in the markets and among financial institutions, oligopolization, “monetary desertification” of regions, excessive administrative costs, focus on capital export). Shown is the “pro-crisis” nature of the financial sector in Russia (1– 2 crises in 10–15 years). The complete correspondence of the parameters of the financial sector of Russia to other developing economies is demonstrated (the fourth – seventh dozen countries in terms of financial depth). It is shown that the parameters of financial development, as a rule, are worse than the groups of countries with lower middle income (according to the international classification). The analysis of the Russian economic model made it possible to show the cause-and-effect relationships between it and the financial sector model, their interdependence. Four scenarios of the economic future (“besieged fortress”, “frozen economy”, “Spanish”, “growth economy”) are given, with estimates of their probability, and on this basis the corresponding scenarios for the future development of the Russian financial sector. The scenario of the “growth economy” based on the change in the model of the economy in Russia, the policy of “financial afterburner” and the formation of a new model of the financial sector in Russia is more fully disclosed.
format article
author Ya. M. Mirkin
author_facet Ya. M. Mirkin
author_sort Ya. M. Mirkin
title Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance
title_short Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance
title_full Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance
title_fullStr Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance
title_full_unstemmed Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance
title_sort financial sector of russia: 30 years of high volatility inside global finance
publisher Ассоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”)
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/87d1078374b1486fb4a817e40dcf6b33
work_keys_str_mv AT yammirkin financialsectorofrussia30yearsofhighvolatilityinsideglobalfinance
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