Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Abstract Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemb...

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Autores principales:	Brian D. Grieve, Jon A. Hare, Vincent S. Saba
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8821487cd0bd4a49a9c8e56ba63b38ad
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8821487cd0bd4a49a9c8e56ba63b38ad2021-12-02T16:07:04ZProjecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf10.1038/s41598-017-06524-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8821487cd0bd4a49a9c8e56ba63b38ad2017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06524-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.Brian D. GrieveJon A. HareVincent S. SabaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Brian D. Grieve Jon A. Hare Vincent S. Saba Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
description	Abstract Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.
format	article
author	Brian D. Grieve Jon A. Hare Vincent S. Saba
author_facet	Brian D. Grieve Jon A. Hare Vincent S. Saba
author_sort	Brian D. Grieve
title	Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_short	Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_full	Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_fullStr	Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_full_unstemmed	Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_sort	projecting the effects of climate change on calanus finmarchicus distribution within the u.s. northeast continental shelf
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/8821487cd0bd4a49a9c8e56ba63b38ad
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Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

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