The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator

Marine mammals have been proposed as ecosystem sentinels due to their conspicuous nature, wide ranging distribution, and capacity to respond to changes in ecosystem structure and functioning. In southern European Atlantic waters, their response to climate variability has been little explored, partly...

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Autores principales:	Amaia Astarloa, Maite Louzao, Joana Andrade, Lucy Babey, Simon Berrow, Oliver Boisseau, Tom Brereton, Ghislain Dorémus, Peter G. H. Evans, Nicola K. Hodgins, Mark Lewis, Jose Martinez-Cedeira, Malin L. Pinsky, Vincent Ridoux, Camilo Saavedra, M. Begoña Santos, James T. Thorson, James J. Waggitt, Dave Wall, Guillem Chust
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	common dolphin center of gravity climate indices predator-prey environmental variability time series Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/88620f5e98504a7193fcc96cb3b3a5e9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:88620f5e98504a7193fcc96cb3b3a5e92021-11-22T12:32:56ZThe Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator2296-774510.3389/fmars.2021.665474https://doaj.org/article/88620f5e98504a7193fcc96cb3b3a5e92021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.665474/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745Marine mammals have been proposed as ecosystem sentinels due to their conspicuous nature, wide ranging distribution, and capacity to respond to changes in ecosystem structure and functioning. In southern European Atlantic waters, their response to climate variability has been little explored, partly because of the inherent difficulty of investigating higher trophic levels and long lifespan animals. Here, we analyzed spatio-temporal patterns from 1994 to 2018 of one of the most abundant cetaceans in the area, the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis), in order to (1) explore changes in its abundance and distribution, and (2) identify the underlying drivers. For that, we estimated the density of the species and the center of gravity of its distribution in the Bay of Biscay (BoB) and tested the effect of three sets of potential drivers (climate indices, oceanographic conditions, and prey biomasses) with a Vector Autoregressive Spatio Temporal (VAST) model that accounts for changes in sampling effort resulting from the combination of multiple datasets. Our results showed that the common dolphin significantly increased in abundance in the BoB during the study period. These changes were best explained by climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and by prey species biomass. Oceanographic variables such as chlorophyll a concentration and temperature were less useful or not related. In addition, we found high variability in the geographic center of gravity of the species within the study region, with shifts between the inner (southeast) and the outer (northwest) part of the BoB, although the majority of this variability could not be attributed to the drivers considered in the study. Overall, these findings indicate that considering temperature alone for projecting spatio-temporal patterns of highly mobile predators is insufficient in this region and suggest important influences from prey and climate indices that integrate multiple ecological influences. Further integration of existing observational datasets to understand the causes of past shifts will be important for making accurate projections into the future.Amaia AstarloaMaite LouzaoJoana AndradeLucy BabeySimon BerrowOliver BoisseauTom BreretonGhislain DorémusPeter G. H. EvansPeter G. H. EvansNicola K. HodginsMark LewisJose Martinez-CedeiraMalin L. PinskyVincent RidouxCamilo SaavedraM. Begoña SantosJames T. ThorsonJames J. WaggittDave WallGuillem ChustFrontiers Media S.A.articlecommon dolphincenter of gravityclimate indicespredator-preyenvironmental variabilitytime seriesScienceQGeneral. Including nature conservation, geographical distributionQH1-199.5ENFrontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	common dolphin center of gravity climate indices predator-prey environmental variability time series Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
spellingShingle	common dolphin center of gravity climate indices predator-prey environmental variability time series Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Amaia Astarloa Maite Louzao Joana Andrade Lucy Babey Simon Berrow Oliver Boisseau Tom Brereton Ghislain Dorémus Peter G. H. Evans Peter G. H. Evans Nicola K. Hodgins Mark Lewis Jose Martinez-Cedeira Malin L. Pinsky Vincent Ridoux Camilo Saavedra M. Begoña Santos James T. Thorson James J. Waggitt Dave Wall Guillem Chust The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator
description	Marine mammals have been proposed as ecosystem sentinels due to their conspicuous nature, wide ranging distribution, and capacity to respond to changes in ecosystem structure and functioning. In southern European Atlantic waters, their response to climate variability has been little explored, partly because of the inherent difficulty of investigating higher trophic levels and long lifespan animals. Here, we analyzed spatio-temporal patterns from 1994 to 2018 of one of the most abundant cetaceans in the area, the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis), in order to (1) explore changes in its abundance and distribution, and (2) identify the underlying drivers. For that, we estimated the density of the species and the center of gravity of its distribution in the Bay of Biscay (BoB) and tested the effect of three sets of potential drivers (climate indices, oceanographic conditions, and prey biomasses) with a Vector Autoregressive Spatio Temporal (VAST) model that accounts for changes in sampling effort resulting from the combination of multiple datasets. Our results showed that the common dolphin significantly increased in abundance in the BoB during the study period. These changes were best explained by climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and by prey species biomass. Oceanographic variables such as chlorophyll a concentration and temperature were less useful or not related. In addition, we found high variability in the geographic center of gravity of the species within the study region, with shifts between the inner (southeast) and the outer (northwest) part of the BoB, although the majority of this variability could not be attributed to the drivers considered in the study. Overall, these findings indicate that considering temperature alone for projecting spatio-temporal patterns of highly mobile predators is insufficient in this region and suggest important influences from prey and climate indices that integrate multiple ecological influences. Further integration of existing observational datasets to understand the causes of past shifts will be important for making accurate projections into the future.
format	article
author	Amaia Astarloa Maite Louzao Joana Andrade Lucy Babey Simon Berrow Oliver Boisseau Tom Brereton Ghislain Dorémus Peter G. H. Evans Peter G. H. Evans Nicola K. Hodgins Mark Lewis Jose Martinez-Cedeira Malin L. Pinsky Vincent Ridoux Camilo Saavedra M. Begoña Santos James T. Thorson James J. Waggitt Dave Wall Guillem Chust
author_facet	Amaia Astarloa Maite Louzao Joana Andrade Lucy Babey Simon Berrow Oliver Boisseau Tom Brereton Ghislain Dorémus Peter G. H. Evans Peter G. H. Evans Nicola K. Hodgins Mark Lewis Jose Martinez-Cedeira Malin L. Pinsky Vincent Ridoux Camilo Saavedra M. Begoña Santos James T. Thorson James J. Waggitt Dave Wall Guillem Chust
author_sort	Amaia Astarloa
title	The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator
title_short	The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator
title_full	The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator
title_fullStr	The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator
title_full_unstemmed	The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator
title_sort	role of climate, oceanography, and prey in driving decadal spatio-temporal patterns of a highly mobile top predator
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/88620f5e98504a7193fcc96cb3b3a5e9
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The Role of Climate, Oceanography, and Prey in Driving Decadal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of a Highly Mobile Top Predator

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