Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle

There are many calls to use the COVID 19 crisis as an opportunity for transforming to a future trajectory that is more equitable and environmentally sustainable. What is lacking is a cohesive framework for bringing these calls together. We propose that such transitions could be informed by lessons...

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Autores principales:	Brian Walker, Stephen R. Carpenter, Carl Folke, Lance Gunderson, Garry D. Peterson, Marten Scheffer, Michael Schoon, Frances R. Westley
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Resilience Alliance 2020
Materias:	adaptive cycle covid 19 drivers global governance gridlock renewal transformation Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8872bfd1110f408a807f5b86d0807f03
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8872bfd1110f408a807f5b86d0807f032021-12-02T14:14:42ZNavigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle1708-308710.5751/ES-12072-250423https://doaj.org/article/8872bfd1110f408a807f5b86d0807f032020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol25/iss4/art23/https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087There are many calls to use the COVID 19 crisis as an opportunity for transforming to a future trajectory that is more equitable and environmentally sustainable. What is lacking is a cohesive framework for bringing these calls together. We propose that such transitions could be informed by lessons from three decades of scholarship on abrupt and surprising change in systems of humans and nature. Over time, many social-ecological systems exhibit cycles of change consisting of sequential patterns of growth, development, crisis, and reorganization. A critical phase in the cycle is the brief period after crisis when novelty and innovation can change the future trajectory. Without being prepared for this window of opportunity, deep, systemic change may be unachievable. We propose a three-step process to identify the major drivers of the global system that need to be changed: (1) identifying what society values; (2) identifying the determinants of these valued variables; and (3) identifying the underlying drivers of the determinants and how they need to be changed. A tentative list of five such drivers are identified and discussed: (i) the economic system, (ii) homogenization, (iii) human population growth, size, and densities, (iv) consumption patterns, human ethics, and behavior, and (v) governance. They are linked to seven questions relating to how we might proceed in addressing the drivers. If response to the crisis merely reinforces the existing system, its incompatibility with the natural world and its propensity to increase inequity and conflict will likely increase fragility and lead to another version of the present calamity. If it is a deliberately transformed system that emerges its future will depend on the reorganization process, and the way the system is guided into the future. What is needed is a deliberate, fundamental cultivation of emergence to enable transformation toward better futures in order to avoid an inevitable deepening of a system that ultimately is worse for all.Brian WalkerStephen R. CarpenterCarl FolkeLance GundersonGarry D. PetersonMarten SchefferMichael SchoonFrances R. WestleyResilience Alliancearticleadaptive cyclecovid 19driversglobalgovernancegridlockrenewaltransformationBiology (General)QH301-705.5EcologyQH540-549.5ENEcology and Society, Vol 25, Iss 4, p 23 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	adaptive cycle covid 19 drivers global governance gridlock renewal transformation Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	adaptive cycle covid 19 drivers global governance gridlock renewal transformation Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 Brian Walker Stephen R. Carpenter Carl Folke Lance Gunderson Garry D. Peterson Marten Scheffer Michael Schoon Frances R. Westley Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle
description	There are many calls to use the COVID 19 crisis as an opportunity for transforming to a future trajectory that is more equitable and environmentally sustainable. What is lacking is a cohesive framework for bringing these calls together. We propose that such transitions could be informed by lessons from three decades of scholarship on abrupt and surprising change in systems of humans and nature. Over time, many social-ecological systems exhibit cycles of change consisting of sequential patterns of growth, development, crisis, and reorganization. A critical phase in the cycle is the brief period after crisis when novelty and innovation can change the future trajectory. Without being prepared for this window of opportunity, deep, systemic change may be unachievable. We propose a three-step process to identify the major drivers of the global system that need to be changed: (1) identifying what society values; (2) identifying the determinants of these valued variables; and (3) identifying the underlying drivers of the determinants and how they need to be changed. A tentative list of five such drivers are identified and discussed: (i) the economic system, (ii) homogenization, (iii) human population growth, size, and densities, (iv) consumption patterns, human ethics, and behavior, and (v) governance. They are linked to seven questions relating to how we might proceed in addressing the drivers. If response to the crisis merely reinforces the existing system, its incompatibility with the natural world and its propensity to increase inequity and conflict will likely increase fragility and lead to another version of the present calamity. If it is a deliberately transformed system that emerges its future will depend on the reorganization process, and the way the system is guided into the future. What is needed is a deliberate, fundamental cultivation of emergence to enable transformation toward better futures in order to avoid an inevitable deepening of a system that ultimately is worse for all.
format	article
author	Brian Walker Stephen R. Carpenter Carl Folke Lance Gunderson Garry D. Peterson Marten Scheffer Michael Schoon Frances R. Westley
author_facet	Brian Walker Stephen R. Carpenter Carl Folke Lance Gunderson Garry D. Peterson Marten Scheffer Michael Schoon Frances R. Westley
author_sort	Brian Walker
title	Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle
title_short	Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle
title_full	Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle
title_fullStr	Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle
title_full_unstemmed	Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle
title_sort	navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle
publisher	Resilience Alliance
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/8872bfd1110f408a807f5b86d0807f03
work_keys_str_mv	AT brianwalker navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle AT stephenrcarpenter navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle AT carlfolke navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle AT lancegunderson navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle AT garrydpeterson navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle AT martenscheffer navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle AT michaelschoon navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle AT francesrwestley navigatingthechaosofanunfoldingglobalcycle
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Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle

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