A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate

Abstract A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely...

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Autores principales: L. Wang, M. Ting, P. J. Kushner
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Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2017
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/88c1c6d52e6441a68d6af5f8e73c5d44
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:88c1c6d52e6441a68d6af5f8e73c5d442021-12-02T12:32:25ZA robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/88c1c6d52e6441a68d6af5f8e73c5d442017-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.L. WangM. TingP. J. KushnerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
L. Wang
M. Ting
P. J. Kushner
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate
description Abstract A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.
format article
author L. Wang
M. Ting
P. J. Kushner
author_facet L. Wang
M. Ting
P. J. Kushner
author_sort L. Wang
title A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate
title_short A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate
title_full A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate
title_fullStr A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate
title_full_unstemmed A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate
title_sort robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter nao and surface climate
publisher Nature Portfolio
publishDate 2017
url https://doaj.org/article/88c1c6d52e6441a68d6af5f8e73c5d44
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