Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions

At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country’s production and people’s daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epid...

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Autores principales:	Qingqing Ji, Xu Zhao, Hanlin Ma, Qing Liu, Yiwen Liu, Qiyue Guan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	novel coronavirus epidemic control traffic control measures least square estimation SIR model Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/88d91e07a85a4aacbed5b15abd3bbd91
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:88d91e07a85a4aacbed5b15abd3bbd91
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:88d91e07a85a4aacbed5b15abd3bbd912021-11-25T18:16:34ZEstimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions10.3390/math92228492227-7390https://doaj.org/article/88d91e07a85a4aacbed5b15abd3bbd912021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/22/2849https://doaj.org/toc/2227-7390At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country’s production and people’s daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epidemiological theories and possible disease control measures, this paper establishes a Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model that meets the characteristics of the transmission of the new coronavirus, using the least square estimation (LSE) method to estimate the model parameters. The simulation results show that quarantine and containment measures as well as vaccine and drug development measures can control the spread of the epidemic effectively. As can be seen from the prediction results of the model, the simulation results of the epidemic development of the whole country and Nanjing are in agreement with the real situation of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases is close to the real value. At the same time, the model’s prediction of the prevention effect and control measures have shed new light on epidemic prevention and control.Qingqing JiXu ZhaoHanlin MaQing LiuYiwen LiuQiyue GuanMDPI AGarticlenovel coronavirusepidemic controltraffic control measuresleast square estimationSIR modelMathematicsQA1-939ENMathematics, Vol 9, Iss 2849, p 2849 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	novel coronavirus epidemic control traffic control measures least square estimation SIR model Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	novel coronavirus epidemic control traffic control measures least square estimation SIR model Mathematics QA1-939 Qingqing Ji Xu Zhao Hanlin Ma Qing Liu Yiwen Liu Qiyue Guan Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
description	At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country’s production and people’s daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epidemiological theories and possible disease control measures, this paper establishes a Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model that meets the characteristics of the transmission of the new coronavirus, using the least square estimation (LSE) method to estimate the model parameters. The simulation results show that quarantine and containment measures as well as vaccine and drug development measures can control the spread of the epidemic effectively. As can be seen from the prediction results of the model, the simulation results of the epidemic development of the whole country and Nanjing are in agreement with the real situation of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases is close to the real value. At the same time, the model’s prediction of the prevention effect and control measures have shed new light on epidemic prevention and control.
format	article
author	Qingqing Ji Xu Zhao Hanlin Ma Qing Liu Yiwen Liu Qiyue Guan
author_facet	Qingqing Ji Xu Zhao Hanlin Ma Qing Liu Yiwen Liu Qiyue Guan
author_sort	Qingqing Ji
title	Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
title_short	Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
title_full	Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
title_fullStr	Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
title_full_unstemmed	Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
title_sort	estimation of covid-19 transmission and advice on public health interventions
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/88d91e07a85a4aacbed5b15abd3bbd91
work_keys_str_mv	AT qingqingji estimationofcovid19transmissionandadviceonpublichealthinterventions AT xuzhao estimationofcovid19transmissionandadviceonpublichealthinterventions AT hanlinma estimationofcovid19transmissionandadviceonpublichealthinterventions AT qingliu estimationofcovid19transmissionandadviceonpublichealthinterventions AT yiwenliu estimationofcovid19transmissionandadviceonpublichealthinterventions AT qiyueguan estimationofcovid19transmissionandadviceonpublichealthinterventions
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Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions

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