A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models

Increased solar absorption is an important driver of Arctic Amplification, the interconnected set of processes and feedbacks by which Arctic temperatures respond more rapidly than global temperatures to climate forcing. The amount of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic is strongly modulated by seasonal...

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Autores principales:	Anne Sledd, Tristan S. L’Ecuyer
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	arctic climate change solar absorption clouds sea ice albedo Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d2021-12-02T10:56:36ZA Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models2296-646310.3389/feart.2021.769844https://doaj.org/article/89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.769844/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463Increased solar absorption is an important driver of Arctic Amplification, the interconnected set of processes and feedbacks by which Arctic temperatures respond more rapidly than global temperatures to climate forcing. The amount of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic is strongly modulated by seasonal ice and snow cover. Sea ice declines and shorter periods of seasonal snow cover in recent decades have increased solar absorption, amplifying local warming relative to the planet as a whole. However, this Arctic albedo feedback would be substantially larger in the absence of the ubiquitous cloud cover that exists throughout the region. Clouds have been observed to mask the effects of reduced surface albedo and slow the emergence of secular trends in net solar absorption. Applying analogous metrics to several models from the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that ambiguity in the influence of clouds on predicted Arctic solar absorption trends has increased relative to the previous generation of climate models despite better agreement with the observed albedo sensitivity to sea ice variations. Arctic albedo responses to sea ice loss are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in all summer months. This agrees better with observations, but models still slightly underestimate albedo sensitivity to sea ice changes relative to observations. Never-the-less, nearly all CMIP6 models predict that the Arctic is now absorbing more solar radiation than at the start of the century, consistent with recent observations. In fact, many CMIP6 models simulate trends that are too strong relative to internal variability, and spread in predicted Arctic albedo changes has increased since CMIP5. This increased uncertainty can be traced to increased ambiguity in how clouds influence natural and forced variations in Arctic solar absorption. While nearly all CMIP5 models agreed with observations that clouds delay the emergence of forced trends, about half of CMIP6 models suggest that clouds accelerate their emergence from natural variability. Isolating atmospheric contributions to total Arctic reflection suggests that this diverging behavior may be linked to stronger Arctic cloud feedbacks in the latest generation of climate models.Anne SleddTristan S. L’EcuyerTristan S. L’EcuyerFrontiers Media S.A.articlearcticclimate changesolar absorptioncloudssea icealbedoScienceQENFrontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	arctic climate change solar absorption clouds sea ice albedo Science Q
spellingShingle	arctic climate change solar absorption clouds sea ice albedo Science Q Anne Sledd Tristan S. L’Ecuyer Tristan S. L’Ecuyer A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models
description	Increased solar absorption is an important driver of Arctic Amplification, the interconnected set of processes and feedbacks by which Arctic temperatures respond more rapidly than global temperatures to climate forcing. The amount of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic is strongly modulated by seasonal ice and snow cover. Sea ice declines and shorter periods of seasonal snow cover in recent decades have increased solar absorption, amplifying local warming relative to the planet as a whole. However, this Arctic albedo feedback would be substantially larger in the absence of the ubiquitous cloud cover that exists throughout the region. Clouds have been observed to mask the effects of reduced surface albedo and slow the emergence of secular trends in net solar absorption. Applying analogous metrics to several models from the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that ambiguity in the influence of clouds on predicted Arctic solar absorption trends has increased relative to the previous generation of climate models despite better agreement with the observed albedo sensitivity to sea ice variations. Arctic albedo responses to sea ice loss are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in all summer months. This agrees better with observations, but models still slightly underestimate albedo sensitivity to sea ice changes relative to observations. Never-the-less, nearly all CMIP6 models predict that the Arctic is now absorbing more solar radiation than at the start of the century, consistent with recent observations. In fact, many CMIP6 models simulate trends that are too strong relative to internal variability, and spread in predicted Arctic albedo changes has increased since CMIP5. This increased uncertainty can be traced to increased ambiguity in how clouds influence natural and forced variations in Arctic solar absorption. While nearly all CMIP5 models agreed with observations that clouds delay the emergence of forced trends, about half of CMIP6 models suggest that clouds accelerate their emergence from natural variability. Isolating atmospheric contributions to total Arctic reflection suggests that this diverging behavior may be linked to stronger Arctic cloud feedbacks in the latest generation of climate models.
format	article
author	Anne Sledd Tristan S. L’Ecuyer Tristan S. L’Ecuyer
author_facet	Anne Sledd Tristan S. L’Ecuyer Tristan S. L’Ecuyer
author_sort	Anne Sledd
title	A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models
title_short	A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models
title_full	A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models
title_fullStr	A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models
title_full_unstemmed	A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models
title_sort	cloudier picture of ice-albedo feedback in cmip6 models
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/89a03c630af0463e87b96ce33ef2da5d
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A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models

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