Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions

On 31 December, 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China. This epidemics’ health threat is probably one of the biggest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the epidemiological...

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Autores principales:	Alex Arenas, Wesley Cota, Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes, Sergio Gómez, Clara Granell, Joan T. Matamalas, David Soriano-Paños, Benjamin Steinegger
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Physical Society 2020
Materias:	Physics QC1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8a3d30d1224d41299a6de7499fa9fab9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8a3d30d1224d41299a6de7499fa9fab92021-12-02T14:09:11ZModeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions10.1103/PhysRevX.10.0410552160-3308https://doaj.org/article/8a3d30d1224d41299a6de7499fa9fab92020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.10.041055http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.10.041055https://doaj.org/toc/2160-3308On 31 December, 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China. This epidemics’ health threat is probably one of the biggest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the epidemiological reports, the large basic reproduction number R_{0}∼3.0, together with a huge fraction of asymptomatic infections, paved the way for a major crisis of the national health capacity systems. Here, we develop an age-stratified mobility-based metapopulation model that encapsulates the main particularities of the spreading of COVID-19 regarding (i) its transmission among individuals, (ii) the specificities of certain demographic groups with respect to the impact of COVID-19, and (iii) the human mobility patterns inside and among regions. The full dynamics of the epidemic is formalized in terms of a microscopic Markov chain approach that incorporates the former elements and the possibility of implementing containment measures based on social distancing and confinement. With this model, we study the evolution of the effective reproduction number R(t), the key epidemiological parameter to track the evolution of the transmissibility and the effects of containment measures, as it quantifies the number of secondary infections generated by an infected individual. The suppression of the epidemic is directly related to this value and is attained when R<1. We find an analytical expression connecting R with nonpharmacological interventions, and its phase diagram is presented. We apply this model at the municipality level in Spain, successfully forecasting the observed incidence and the number of fatalities in the country at each of its regions. The expression for R should assist policymakers to evaluate the epidemics’ response to actions, such as enforcing or relaxing confinement and social distancing.Alex ArenasWesley CotaJesús Gómez-GardeñesSergio GómezClara GranellJoan T. MatamalasDavid Soriano-PañosBenjamin SteineggerAmerican Physical SocietyarticlePhysicsQC1-999ENPhysical Review X, Vol 10, Iss 4, p 041055 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Physics QC1-999
spellingShingle	Physics QC1-999 Alex Arenas Wesley Cota Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes Sergio Gómez Clara Granell Joan T. Matamalas David Soriano-Paños Benjamin Steinegger Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions
description	On 31 December, 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China. This epidemics’ health threat is probably one of the biggest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the epidemiological reports, the large basic reproduction number R_{0}∼3.0, together with a huge fraction of asymptomatic infections, paved the way for a major crisis of the national health capacity systems. Here, we develop an age-stratified mobility-based metapopulation model that encapsulates the main particularities of the spreading of COVID-19 regarding (i) its transmission among individuals, (ii) the specificities of certain demographic groups with respect to the impact of COVID-19, and (iii) the human mobility patterns inside and among regions. The full dynamics of the epidemic is formalized in terms of a microscopic Markov chain approach that incorporates the former elements and the possibility of implementing containment measures based on social distancing and confinement. With this model, we study the evolution of the effective reproduction number R(t), the key epidemiological parameter to track the evolution of the transmissibility and the effects of containment measures, as it quantifies the number of secondary infections generated by an infected individual. The suppression of the epidemic is directly related to this value and is attained when R<1. We find an analytical expression connecting R with nonpharmacological interventions, and its phase diagram is presented. We apply this model at the municipality level in Spain, successfully forecasting the observed incidence and the number of fatalities in the country at each of its regions. The expression for R should assist policymakers to evaluate the epidemics’ response to actions, such as enforcing or relaxing confinement and social distancing.
format	article
author	Alex Arenas Wesley Cota Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes Sergio Gómez Clara Granell Joan T. Matamalas David Soriano-Paños Benjamin Steinegger
author_facet	Alex Arenas Wesley Cota Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes Sergio Gómez Clara Granell Joan T. Matamalas David Soriano-Paños Benjamin Steinegger
author_sort	Alex Arenas
title	Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions
title_short	Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions
title_full	Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions
title_fullStr	Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions
title_sort	modeling the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of covid-19 and the impact of mobility and social distancing interventions
publisher	American Physical Society
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/8a3d30d1224d41299a6de7499fa9fab9
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Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions

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