Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction

Abstract The El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent sources of inter-annual climate variability. Related to the seasonal phase-locking, ENSO’s prediction across the low-persistence barrier in the boreal spring remains a challenge. Here we identify regions where surface current...

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Autores principales:	Jianing Wang, Youyu Lu, Fan Wang, Rong-Hua Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8ad738531352491baca1afeeacf74b9c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8ad738531352491baca1afeeacf74b9c2021-12-02T16:06:43ZSurface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction10.1038/s41598-017-00244-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8ad738531352491baca1afeeacf74b9c2017-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00244-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent sources of inter-annual climate variability. Related to the seasonal phase-locking, ENSO’s prediction across the low-persistence barrier in the boreal spring remains a challenge. Here we identify regions where surface current variability influences the short-lead time predictions of the July Niño 3.4 index by applying a regression analysis. A highly influential region, related to the distribution of wind-stress curl and sea surface temperature, is located near the dateline and the southern edge of the South Equatorial Current. During El Niño years, a westward current anomaly in the identified high-influence region favours the accumulation of warm water in the western Pacific. The opposite occurs during La Niña years. This process is seen to serve as the “goal shot” for ENSO development, which provides an effective precursor for the prediction of the July Niño 3.4 index with a lead time of 2–4 months. The prediction skill based on surface current precursor beats that based on the warm water volume and persistence in the subsequent months after July. In particular, prediction based on surface current precursor shows skill in all years, while predictions based on other precursors show reduced skill after 2002.Jianing WangYouyu LuFan WangRong-Hua ZhangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jianing Wang Youyu Lu Fan Wang Rong-Hua Zhang Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction
description	Abstract The El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent sources of inter-annual climate variability. Related to the seasonal phase-locking, ENSO’s prediction across the low-persistence barrier in the boreal spring remains a challenge. Here we identify regions where surface current variability influences the short-lead time predictions of the July Niño 3.4 index by applying a regression analysis. A highly influential region, related to the distribution of wind-stress curl and sea surface temperature, is located near the dateline and the southern edge of the South Equatorial Current. During El Niño years, a westward current anomaly in the identified high-influence region favours the accumulation of warm water in the western Pacific. The opposite occurs during La Niña years. This process is seen to serve as the “goal shot” for ENSO development, which provides an effective precursor for the prediction of the July Niño 3.4 index with a lead time of 2–4 months. The prediction skill based on surface current precursor beats that based on the warm water volume and persistence in the subsequent months after July. In particular, prediction based on surface current precursor shows skill in all years, while predictions based on other precursors show reduced skill after 2002.
format	article
author	Jianing Wang Youyu Lu Fan Wang Rong-Hua Zhang
author_facet	Jianing Wang Youyu Lu Fan Wang Rong-Hua Zhang
author_sort	Jianing Wang
title	Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction
title_short	Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction
title_full	Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction
title_fullStr	Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction
title_full_unstemmed	Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction
title_sort	surface current in “hotspot” serves as a new and effective precursor for el niño prediction
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/8ad738531352491baca1afeeacf74b9c
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Surface Current in “Hotspot” Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Niño Prediction

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