Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.

Self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence involve misbeliefs about the self, others, and world. They are often considered mistaken. Here we explore whether they might be adaptive, and further, whether they might be explicable in Bayesian terms. We administered a difficult perceptual judgment task...

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Autores principales:	Rosa A Rossi-Goldthorpe, Yuan Chang Leong, Pantelis Leptourgos, Philip R Corlett
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8b54b99c2bad4bc8835ed175a658a484
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:8b54b99c2bad4bc8835ed175a658a484
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8b54b99c2bad4bc8835ed175a658a4842021-11-25T05:42:07ZParanoia, self-deception and overconfidence.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1009453https://doaj.org/article/8b54b99c2bad4bc8835ed175a658a4842021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009453https://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358Self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence involve misbeliefs about the self, others, and world. They are often considered mistaken. Here we explore whether they might be adaptive, and further, whether they might be explicable in Bayesian terms. We administered a difficult perceptual judgment task with and without social influence (suggestions from a cooperating or competing partner). Crucially, the social influence was uninformative. We found that participants heeded the suggestions most under the most uncertain conditions and that they did so with high confidence, particularly if they were more paranoid. Model fitting to participant behavior revealed that their prior beliefs changed depending on whether the partner was a collaborator or competitor, however, those beliefs did not differ as a function of paranoia. Instead, paranoia, self-deception, and overconfidence were associated with participants' perceived instability of their own performance. These data are consistent with the idea that self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence flourish under uncertainty, and have their roots in low self-esteem, rather than excessive social concern. The model suggests that spurious beliefs can have value-self-deception is irrational yet can facilitate optimal behavior. This occurs even at the expense of monetary rewards, perhaps explaining why self-deception and paranoia contribute to costly decisions which can spark financial crashes and devastating wars.Rosa A Rossi-GoldthorpeYuan Chang LeongPantelis LeptourgosPhilip R CorlettPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 17, Iss 10, p e1009453 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Rosa A Rossi-Goldthorpe Yuan Chang Leong Pantelis Leptourgos Philip R Corlett Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.
description	Self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence involve misbeliefs about the self, others, and world. They are often considered mistaken. Here we explore whether they might be adaptive, and further, whether they might be explicable in Bayesian terms. We administered a difficult perceptual judgment task with and without social influence (suggestions from a cooperating or competing partner). Crucially, the social influence was uninformative. We found that participants heeded the suggestions most under the most uncertain conditions and that they did so with high confidence, particularly if they were more paranoid. Model fitting to participant behavior revealed that their prior beliefs changed depending on whether the partner was a collaborator or competitor, however, those beliefs did not differ as a function of paranoia. Instead, paranoia, self-deception, and overconfidence were associated with participants' perceived instability of their own performance. These data are consistent with the idea that self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence flourish under uncertainty, and have their roots in low self-esteem, rather than excessive social concern. The model suggests that spurious beliefs can have value-self-deception is irrational yet can facilitate optimal behavior. This occurs even at the expense of monetary rewards, perhaps explaining why self-deception and paranoia contribute to costly decisions which can spark financial crashes and devastating wars.
format	article
author	Rosa A Rossi-Goldthorpe Yuan Chang Leong Pantelis Leptourgos Philip R Corlett
author_facet	Rosa A Rossi-Goldthorpe Yuan Chang Leong Pantelis Leptourgos Philip R Corlett
author_sort	Rosa A Rossi-Goldthorpe
title	Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.
title_short	Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.
title_full	Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.
title_fullStr	Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.
title_full_unstemmed	Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.
title_sort	paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/8b54b99c2bad4bc8835ed175a658a484
work_keys_str_mv	AT rosaarossigoldthorpe paranoiaselfdeceptionandoverconfidence AT yuanchangleong paranoiaselfdeceptionandoverconfidence AT pantelisleptourgos paranoiaselfdeceptionandoverconfidence AT philiprcorlett paranoiaselfdeceptionandoverconfidence
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Paranoia, self-deception and overconfidence.

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