The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract The impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and month...

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Autores principales:	Virgílio A. Bento, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Rita M. Cardoso, Pedro M. M. Soares
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8be877621d1b4143b7301f109443e8b0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8be877621d1b4143b7301f109443e8b02021-12-02T18:46:57ZThe impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula10.1038/s41598-021-95014-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8be877621d1b4143b7301f109443e8b02021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95014-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.Virgílio A. BentoAndreia F. S. RibeiroAna RussoCélia M. GouveiaRita M. CardosoPedro M. M. SoaresNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Virgílio A. Bento Andreia F. S. Ribeiro Ana Russo Célia M. Gouveia Rita M. Cardoso Pedro M. M. Soares The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula
description	Abstract The impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.
format	article
author	Virgílio A. Bento Andreia F. S. Ribeiro Ana Russo Célia M. Gouveia Rita M. Cardoso Pedro M. M. Soares
author_facet	Virgílio A. Bento Andreia F. S. Ribeiro Ana Russo Célia M. Gouveia Rita M. Cardoso Pedro M. M. Soares
author_sort	Virgílio A. Bento
title	The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula
title_short	The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula
title_full	The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula
title_fullStr	The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula
title_full_unstemmed	The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula
title_sort	impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the iberian peninsula
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/8be877621d1b4143b7301f109443e8b0
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The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

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