Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements

Abstract In times of outbreaks, an essential requirement for better monitoring is the evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected individuals. An accurate estimate of this fraction is crucial for the assessment of the situation and the establishment of protective measures. In most current studi...

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Autores principales:	Akiva Bruno Melka, Yoram Louzoun
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8c771b7af648474084bdfed3afd112c1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8c771b7af648474084bdfed3afd112c12021-12-02T12:09:26ZEvaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements10.1038/s41598-021-82691-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8c771b7af648474084bdfed3afd112c12021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82691-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract In times of outbreaks, an essential requirement for better monitoring is the evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected individuals. An accurate estimate of this fraction is crucial for the assessment of the situation and the establishment of protective measures. In most current studies using epidemics models, the total number of infected is either approximated by the number of diagnosed individuals or is dependent on the model parameters and assumptions, which are often debated. We here study the relationship between the fraction of diagnosed infected out of all infected, and the fraction of infected with known contaminator out of all diagnosed infected. We show that those two are approximately the same in exponential models and across most models currently used in the study of epidemics, independently of the model parameters. As an application, we compute an estimate of the effective number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in various countries.Akiva Bruno MelkaYoram LouzounNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Akiva Bruno Melka Yoram Louzoun Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
description	Abstract In times of outbreaks, an essential requirement for better monitoring is the evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected individuals. An accurate estimate of this fraction is crucial for the assessment of the situation and the establishment of protective measures. In most current studies using epidemics models, the total number of infected is either approximated by the number of diagnosed individuals or is dependent on the model parameters and assumptions, which are often debated. We here study the relationship between the fraction of diagnosed infected out of all infected, and the fraction of infected with known contaminator out of all diagnosed infected. We show that those two are approximately the same in exponential models and across most models currently used in the study of epidemics, independently of the model parameters. As an application, we compute an estimate of the effective number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in various countries.
format	article
author	Akiva Bruno Melka Yoram Louzoun
author_facet	Akiva Bruno Melka Yoram Louzoun
author_sort	Akiva Bruno Melka
title	Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
title_short	Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
title_full	Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
title_fullStr	Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
title_sort	evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/8c771b7af648474084bdfed3afd112c1
work_keys_str_mv	AT akivabrunomelka evaluationofthenumberofundiagnosedinfectedinanoutbreakusingsourceofinfectionmeasurements AT yoramlouzoun evaluationofthenumberofundiagnosedinfectedinanoutbreakusingsourceofinfectionmeasurements
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Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements

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